Probabilistic health risk assessment for ingestion of seafood farmed in arsenic contaminated groundwater in Taiwan

Abstract

Seafood farmed in arsenic (As)-contaminated areas is a major exposure pathway for the ingestion of inorganic As by individuals in the southwestern part of Taiwan. This study presents a probabilistic risk assessment using limited data for inorganic As intake through the consumption of the seafood by local residents in these areas. The As content and the consumption rate are both treated as probability distributions, taking into account the variability of the amount in the seafood and individual consumption habits. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is utilized to conduct an assessment of exposure due to the daily intake of inorganic As from As-contaminated seafood. Exposure is evaluated according to the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) established by the FAO/WHO and the target risk based on the US Environmental Protection Agency guidelines. The assessment results show that inorganic As intake from five types of fish (excluding mullet) and shellfish fall below the PTWI threshold values for the 95th percentiles, but exceed the target cancer risk of 10(-6). The predicted 95th percentile for inorganic As intake and lifetime cancer risks obtained in the study are both markedly higher than those obtained in previous studies in which the consumption rate of seafood considered is a deterministic value. This study demonstrates the importance of the individual variability of seafood consumption when evaluating a high exposure sub-group of the population who eat higher amounts of fish and shellfish than the average Taiwanese.