Probabilistic earthquake and flood loss assessment in the Middle East

Abstract

Investing in disaster risk reduction and resilience-increasing strategies requires a comprehensive understanding of multi-hazard risk. In this study, we assess the direct economic impacts of earthquakes, fluvial and pluvial floods on the residential building stock of 12 countries in the Middle-East: Jordan, Syria, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq. The model provides the average annual losses as well as losses corresponding to various return periods available at the national and sub-national level. We estimate risk using a set of stochastic events considering a wide range of uncertainties. Specifically, the hazard component includes a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model considering uncertainty in the seismic sources/ruptures and ground motion models; and a high-resolution probabilistic flood hazard model for both fluvial and pluvial events. The loss model incorporates a high-resolution exposure database suitable for multi-hazard risk assessment. The vulnerability component considers diverse building typologies defined by material, lateral-load resisting system, building height, presence of basements and seismic design level. Findings from this study are essential for raising risk awareness and supporting decision making in disaster risk reduction activities in the considered countries.