Probabilistic approach to derive operational intervention levels for nuclear emergency preparedness.

Abstract

A probabilistic approach is presented for the derivation of operational intervention levels as guidelines for intervention in a nuclear emergency. The probabilistic approach differs from the standard, deterministic approach in that the many variables needed for a risk and dose estimate are allowed to fluctuate and sampled, rather than using point estimate of key parameters. The fluctuations have a large effect on the operational intervention levels, leading to optimized levels that depend both on the accident scenario and on the distance from the site of the hypothetical accident. The methodology is illustrated for the case of dose rate operational intervention levels for sheltering. At distances larger than a few kilometers, values of dose rate operational intervention levels are obtained that are considerably higher than values developed through deterministic practices. As demonstrated, calculations of site-specific operational intervention levels can augment the emergency preparedness for nuclear facilities. In principle, the approach can be expanded to yield optimized emergency response planning for any nuclear facility subject to various accident conditions.