Prioritizing risks in sustainable construction projects using a risk matrix-based Monte Carlo Simulation approach

Abstract

Sustainability-related risks and risk management frameworks have been introduced in the literature to help project managers identify and manage critical risks influencing project sustainability. Theoretically grounded in the framework of Monte Carlo Simulation, this paper introduces and operationalizes a new process for prioritizing sustainability-related project risks using risk matrix data. Sustainability-related construction project risks have never been assessed relative to different confidence levels across the risk matrix-based exposure zones. The application of the proposed process on construction projects completed in the United Arab Emirates reveals that the conventional risk prioritization scheme undermines the importance of tail risks (unexpected events), whereas such risks are captured in the proposed process. In contrast to the most critical risks identified using the conventional scheme such as shortage of client’s funding, insufficient or incorrect sustainable design operation, and design changes, the proposed process prioritizes risks such as poor productivity of labor and equipment in sustainable construction, unreasonable tight schedule for sustainable construction, and poor scope definition of sustainable construction. The proposed process is generalizable to prioritizing risks influencing sustainability in international construction projects and beneficial for enhancing project sustainability as there is a huge uncertainty associated with sustainability-related risks.