Abstract
Human society needs to achieve a low-carbon energy mix this century. To achieve this, we need: (a) an appreciation of the value of Earth's atmosphere; and (b) a sustainable approach for low-carbon energy. For sustainable developments, three pillars need to work together: the environment, social equity and economics. To address the societal aspects of the low-carbon energy transition, we need to appreciate that our future depends on protecting the Earth's atmosphere. By reviewing the discovery of the greenhouse gas effect over the last 200 years, we establish the essential motivation for changing human behaviour with regard to energy use. From this basis, we consider the challenge of how to achieve this energy transition or, more specifically, how to overcome the dissonances related to societal acceptance, economic hurdles and lack of progress with deployment of low-carbon energy options. The last decade has seen a significant growth in the renewable energy and natural gas sectors: however, CCS has made limited progress. This has to change if the human population is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In order to accelerate reductions in global CO 2 emissions, all low-carbon energy options must be deployed at an increasing rate in the coming decades.
Highlights
Human society needs to achieve a low-carbon energy mix this century
This dramatic growth in fossil-fuel use has resulted in consumption of a very significant fraction of fossil fuel reserves, a resource which accumulated over 0.5 gyr of the Earth’s history; coals and petroleum liquids being derived from the remains of land plants and marine algae deposited and buried during the Phanerozoic Eon, a period of 541 myr
Anthropogenic global warming has been very much debated over the last decade, most notably since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and concerning the Working Group I contribution on the scientific basis for climate change (Solomon 2007)
Summary
Anthropogenic global warming has been very much debated over the last decade, most notably since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and concerning the Working Group I contribution on the scientific basis for climate change (Solomon 2007). Using a range of CO2 emissions and energy use scenarios, McGlade & Ekins (2015) have argued that gas is likely to play an important role in displacing coal as a power source in both the electrical and industrial sectors (assuming the constraints of a 2°C global warming scenario). In the World Energy Outlook 2015 report (IEA 2015b), the IEA anticipates a gradually reducing contribution of fossil fuels to the global primary energy mix, declining from 80 to 75% in 2030, with coal and oil on a declining trend, and only natural gas increasing by around 30% during this period This analysis is based on the current national pledges for reducing emissions (the INDC scenario), with the IEA bridge scenario involving more aggressive reductions in fossil-fuel use. CCUS could be used to accelerate and stimulate the necessary growth of large-scale CO2 capture, transport and storage systems (Godec et al 2013), and has great potential for enabling low-carbon technology growth in developing countries (Liu & Liang 2011)
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