Pricing default risk: The good, the bad, and the anomaly

Abstract

While empirical literature has documented a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, theory suggests that default risk should be positively priced. In this paper, we calculate monthly probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample of European firms and break them down into systematic and idiosyncratic components. The approach that we follow does not require data on credit spreads, thus it can also be applied to small firms that do not have such data available. In accordance with theory, we find that the systematic part, measured as the PD sensitivity to aggregate default risk, is positively related to stock returns. We show that stocks with higher PDs underperform because they have, on average, higher idiosyncratic risk. Finally, small and value stocks are quite heterogeneous with respect to their exposure to aggregate default risk.