Prevratnički potencijal i pozicija masovnih medija tokom Arapskog proleća - slučaj Tunisa, Egipta i Sirije

Initially introduced as a response to the recurrent problem of military coups d'etat, the rejection of unconstitutional changes of government has evolved to become the lynchpin of the African Union's policy on constitutionalism and democratic governance in Africa. However, the prevailing political realities in many African countries, including the (re-)introduction of anti-democratic policies and dubious constitutional manoeuvres by incumbent governments, as well as recent events associated with the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ have highlighted the limitations of the African Union's existing strategy both in theory and practice. Based on a critical analysis of the African Union's regime on unconstitutional changes of government, its normative design and practical application, this article argues that—and explains why—the organisation has so far generally overpromised, but underdelivered, on the stated goal of collectively safeguarding constitutional democracy in its member states. While recognising its achievements in the progressive development and consolidation of a regional norm outlawing unconstitutional changes of government, the analysis identifies a host of conceptual and practical problems that have hampered the capacity of the African Union to effectively deal with diverse forms of illegitimate disruptions of democratic processes in several African countries. Apart from cases involving popular uprisings, in respect of which the organisation is still in search for a coherent policy framework, there is also a lack of conceptual clarity as to which cases of democratic backsliding can be brought under the rubric of unconstitutional changes of government, as well as a general reluctance on the part of the African Union to apply its policy against incumbent governments entangled in unconstitutional preservations of power. The article provides some recommendations aimed at realising the potential of the African Union's normative framework on unconstitutional changes of government as a meaningful tool for the promotion of constitutional democracy in Africa.

Rapping the Arab Spring

This paper examines the attitude of Malaysian youth towards the ‘Arab Spring’ events in the Middle East and North Africa. In particular, it explores the knowledge and perceptions of a selected young generation in Malaysia towards the ‘Arab Spring’ as well as considering how the events impact and influence their attitudes towards regime change, democracy and political stability. The major involvement of Malaysian youth in a series of mass protests, popularly known in Malaysia as the “Bersih movement” against the ruling government, were perceived by numerous local and foreign journalists as an attempt to create a “Malaysian Spring”. However, there have been strong opinions voiced by the Malaysian authorities and various local scholars suggesting that there was no basis for presuming an ‘Arab Spring’ impact in the context of the Malaysian experience. This raises the question of the relationship between the ‘Arab Spring’ and Malaysian youth. Nevertheless, the central concern that needs to be highlighted is the extent to which youth in Malaysia grasp the significance of the ‘Arab Spring’ before jumping to any conclusion about the polemics of the “Malaysian Spring”. In so doing, both quantitative and qualitative methods were applied through a questionnaire based-survey which was conducted in Malaysia involving 607 respondents, primarily Malaysian youth between the ages of 18 and 35, as well as 10 in-depth interviews with selected Malaysian youth leaders ranging from those in opposition political parties to those in non-government organisations (NGOs). The outcome of this research shows that the majority of respondents have an outstanding knowledge on the ‘Arab Spring’ which was mostly obtained via new social media such as Facebook and Twitter, along with mixed perceptions toward the events. Furthermore, they also reached an understanding that the uncertainties in the Arab world would eventually lead to another wave of uprisings in the long term. The global impact of the Arab Spring events, some elements of political repression, coupled with corruption and power abuses (which some claimed to be practised by the Malaysian regime), led to a number of youth believing that they were inspired by the acts of mass street protests during the ‘Arab Spring’. This inspiration came when they witnessed the ousting of several long-serving autocratic Arab rulers in their respective states. However, the fear of insecurity and political instability which is currently evident in the post-Arab Spring in Egypt, Libya, Syria and the Yemen led to some respondents favouring political stability rather than regime change. Most of the respondents were fairly sceptical about the polemics of the “Malaysian Spring” as most of them neither disagreed nor agreed that the series of political rallies by the Bersih movement were an indirect effort to topple the ruling government which was ‘accused’ by several pro-government media, politicians and authorities in Malaysia. Overall, this empirical research found that the majority of Malaysian youth are supportive of a free and democratic election as a relevant medium for political change, rather than overthrowing the current regime via civil disobedience.

The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer

1 Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies Vol. XXXIX, No.1, Fall 2015 Arab Spring and the Arab Media Hussein Amin* Injy Galal* Introduction The Arab world comprises 22 countries spread out across two continents and a population estimated in the millions. The vast majority speaks Arabic and follows the Islamic faith. This population lives under a diversity of political systems—monarchies and republics—that span the spectrum of democracy and freedom. These aspects of the Arab world are also reflected in each respective media system. Despite the diversity of political regimes, most are considered to be autocratic. The generally autocratic nature of many of these governments gave rise to what became known as the “Arab Spring”, which was a series of revolutions that began in Tunisia in early 2011 and spread across the Arab world. The Arab Spring has touched, to some degree, most of the Arab countries; including, Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Oman, the Occupied Palestine, Bahrain and Qatar. However, it became full-fledged in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen, where it succeeded to topple the autocratic regimes. In Syria, it has developed into a civil war that has not yet been settled. *Hussein Amin is a professor and former chair of Journalism and Mass Communication at the American University in Cairo. He holds several key positions in national, regional and global media. He served as a member of the editorial advisory board and also as editor of a number of academic journals. Professor Amin was invited as a keynote speaker to many International conferences and was recognized by the major associations in the fields of media and Communication. His research interest focuses on global media and political communication with specific reference to the Middle East. *Injy Galal is a scholar specialized in mass communications, with more than 15 years of professional experience in international organizations such as the United Nations. She taught media ethics and responsibilities at the American University in Cairo. She has published research in various academic publications, as well as a book to her name titled “US Public Diplomacy in the Middle East: Prospects and Concerns”. Her research interest covers media effects and media ethics. 2 Major changes swept throughout the region within weeks of the Arab Spring initially beginning in 2011. The Tunisian President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali was exiled after more than two decades in power. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down after three decades of rule respectively. The Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi was killed. The Kuwaiti and Jordanian Monarchs changed each respective Cabinet. The Algerian President lifted an emergency law that had been in place for over two decades. The Iraqi Prime Minister proposed constitutional amendments limiting his governmental position to two terms. The Palestinian Authority openly called for the long-delayed elections.1 Four years after the Arab Spring, it is widely perceived that the countries most profoundly affected were Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and Syria. The revolution brought the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt and Tunisia. This resulted in a second revolution in Egypt, in June 2013, which brought General Abdel Fattah El Sisi to power. In Tunisia, political turmoil forced early elections, which brought President Beji Caid Essebsi to power on December 31st, 2014. The governments ushered in by the Arab Spring in both Yemen and Libya quickly fell due to destabilizing effects from internal conflicts amongst the tribes, old guard, reformists and Islamic radicals. To date, both countries remain the site of armed conflicts involving Al-Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), Houthis (in Yemen), and local tribes (CNN International Report, 2015 January). The Arab Spring failed to topple President Bashar Al Assad in Syria, which began as a revolution but has morphed into a protracted civil war between the Government and largely Islamic-supported rebels. The situation has been further complicated with the birth of ISIS. This article focuses on the five countries most profoundly affected by the Arab Spring: Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and Syria. The study will be on the media scene affected by the political scene. The media in each of the respective five countries was a...

Governance, capital and economic growth in the Arab Region

This study focuses on the Arab literature published by researchers from all 22 members of the Arab League during the last 5 years before Arab Spring (2006–2010) and the 5 years after Arab Spring (2011–2015), in order to identify effects of the Arab Spring on research in the Arab world both performance and Productivity, based on bibliometrics analysis of the data extracted from Web of Science and InCites Essential Science Indicators provided by Thomson Reuters, and by using the statistical software package SPSS. The total productivity of Arab researchers before the Arab Spring was (103,917) document. Countries that witnessed revolution and government overthrown produced the largest productivity (42.5%). The Arab countries’ production doubled after the Arab Spring (214,864 document). Countries that witnessed Minor protests advanced to second place (30%) as a result of the leap that occurred in Saudi Arabia publications. The extent of collaboration among Arab countries before the Arab Spring was twice the number of publications in which they collaborated with the rest of the world. The number of citations was positive after the Arab Spring for 12 countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Egypt and United Arab Emirates, while it was negative for 10 countries such as Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan, Kuwait and Lebanon. There is no significant difference between Arab countries exposed to different levels of protests of Arab Spring, and between Counties’ performance after and before Arab Spring. However, counties’ productivity after Arab Spring has increased higher than before Arab Spring.

After unsettling some of the leading regional countries, the ‘Arab Spring’ reached in Syria in 2011. The violent forces it unleashed had widespread and dangerous implications for the region and the world. Groups opposed to the Syrian regime launched a struggle in March 2011, which soon turned to a civil war. The nature of the conflict was further transformed when Muslim extremist groups joined it with the objective to implement Sharia laws after the change of government. The most lethal among them is the ‘Islamic State’ or Da’esh, which has influence over large areas in Syria and Iraq. Through this war, the militants succeeded in amplifying the extremist message and expand the support base. Hence, they not only recruited fighters from the Arab and Muslim countries, but also attracted men and women from the far-off West. In fact, the Syrian conflict provided a rallying point to the Muslim extremists in various countries, after they had been weakened due to gradual decline of al-Qaeda. The article traces how the involvement of Da’esh in the Syrian conflict energized their global jihadist agenda. By using both primary and secondary sources, the study shows that the emergence of the Islamic State not only increased regional strife (Sunni-Shiite rivalry), but it also increased extremist outreach to strike at far off places in Europe, America and Asia. Thus, the militants of Da’esh used the Syrian war to take their extremists idea to places relatively unknown to militancy.

This paper examines the attitude of Malaysian youth towards the ‘Arab Spring’ events in the Middle East and North Africa. In particular, it explores the knowledge and perceptions of a selected young generation in Malaysia towards the ‘Arab Spring’ as well as considering how the events influence their attitudes towards regime change, democracy and political stability. The major involvement of Malaysian youth in a series of mass protests (“BERSIH”) against the ruling government, were perceived by numerous local and foreign journalists as an attempt to create a “Malaysian Spring”. However, there have been strong opinions voiced by the Malaysian authorities suggesting that there was no basis for presuming an ‘Arab Spring’ impact in the context of the Malaysian experience. This raises the question of the relationship between the ‘Arab Spring’ and Malaysian youth. In so doing, both quantitative and qualitative methods were applied through a questionnaire based-survey involving 607 respondents as well as 10 in-depth interviews with selected Malaysian youth leaders. The outcome of this research shows that a number of youth believing that they were inspired by the acts of mass street protests during the ‘Arab Spring’. However, the fear of political instability which is currently evident in the post-Arab Spring led to some respondents favouring political stability rather than regime change. Overall, this empirical research found that the majority of Malaysian youth are supportive of a free and democratic election as a relevant medium for political change, rather than overthrowing the current regime via civil disobedience.

Morocco

Egypt has experienced drastic changes in government recently. Studying these changes can lead to more understanding of the revolutions caused by the Arab Spring in other countries and can also explain the hegemonic conduct of the United States. This qualitative study was conducted through 1) reviewing scholarly published documents and other relevant official news resources that were published on the relationship between Egypt and the United States after the 2011 revolution, and 2) interviewing 12 key informants (ethnic, academic, and administrative elites). Qualitative content analysis was the main approach to data analysis. The results with a focus on both Obama’s administration and Trumps’ administration revealed that Egypt and the United States relations were affected due to Egypt’s anti-western agenda. Later, the United States’ main strategies in maintaining its hegemony in Egypt were discussed. Among these factors, 1) the United States’ aid policy, 2) the United States’ tolerance policy, 3) aborting FJP, 4) imposing the western culture, and 4) the United States’ support of street protests can be mentioned. Areas for further research are discussed at the end of the study.

This article puts the contributions in this special issue of Built Environment into the perspective of the massive transformations that have taken place in the cities of the Arab world over the last thirty years. It analyses the specificities of the modes of production of the urban fabric and identifies the spatial, social, economic and political disjunctions that developed within the Arab cities – and led, with other factors, to the 'Arab Spring'. The perceptions of the city and the claims on the urban environment have been transformed. The article demonstrates that the impacts of 'Arab Spring' on the production and the politics of the Arab cities remain to be seen. However, temporalities of change reflect gaps and iterations. Change faces resistance, drawbacks, and uncertainties. In-depth reshuffling of the hierarchy of powers, shifts in the mindset of the decision-makers, and transformation of the administrative and political bodies are long-term processes. In the meantime, the urban mobilizations, activism, as well as the stakes embedded in the urban fabric and materiality, are back on the agenda of research.

It is undeniable that, while the underlying symptoms of what needs to be done in terms of economic and other reforms have been widely debated in the MENA region, the speed of events through the unleashing of the so-called “Arab Spring” that started in Tunisia in 2011, has taken many people by surprise. It is not just the MENA region that faces economic, social, or political problems, as the continuing Euro zone crisis has also demonstrated with its impact on both poor and rich European countries. Whoever is in power, has to grapple with complex political and socioeconomic challenges and face trade-offs, whether these are between security and liberty; economic growth and social justice; or private sector investment and public sector safety nets. At the same time, governments everywhere have to create jobs and none more so than in the MENA region, with its youthful population and large number of unemployed, especially among the young. Unemployment and frustration has been a prime factor that has generated the convulsions of the “Arab Spring”. As such, a key objective for all MENA countries, as well as in the GCC bloc, is programs that lead toward stability and consensual change, social and economic progress, national independence, and global and regional responsibility. Regardless of the final outcome, it is beyond doubt that the Arab world in general is undergoing a unique moment in its history, and how they grasp this moment will define the final changes for decades to come. For those who follow fundamental socioeconomic and political events, the “Arab Spring” is not unique, as other countries and societies have had their “Spring” such as the “Polish Springs” of 1956 and 1982, the “Prague Spring” of 1968, and the “Seoul Spring” of 1979 (Abdullah 2012; Bayat 2010; Filliu 2011).

This opinion piece of different Arab views and perspectives on the ‘Arab Spring’ and its significance and repercussions in the Arab Gulf region comprises three papers: ‘Repercussions of the Arab movements for democracy on the Saudi street’, by Mohammed Iben Sunitan; ‘Arab Spring … fleeting or perpetual?’, by Jasem Khaled Al-Sadoun; and ‘Repercussions of the Arab movements for democracy in Bahrain’, by Ali Mohammed Fakhro. Iben Sunitan posits a framework for a reading of the repercussions of the current movements on the Arab street in Saudi Arabia in a brief but highly informative account of the various Saudi opposition groups since the inception of the state under King ‘Abd al-’Aziz bin Sa9ud. The author details the various strategies that have been employed by Saudi monarchs for dealing with or assimilating various opposition groups that have appeared and he examines the new dynamics of a situation in which the youth figure prominently and the house of Al Sa9ud is at a crossroads where it must successfully adapt to the new objective conditions and atmosphere engendered by the climactic and momentous events of 2011. Al-Sadoun deals with numerous issues that pertain to the Gulf region in general such as age demographics, unemployment, economic issues, and the question of what he terms the dichotomy of ‘projects of rule’ as opposed to modern ‘projects of state’, where the former have tended to characterize the Arab world at the expense of both efforts to modernize and democratize. In the global context al-Sadoun sees hope for democratic transition provided that various Gulf rulerships and governments arrive at the conclusion that voluntary democratic reform is considerably less costly than suppression of the popular will. With regard to Tunisia and Egypt – despite serious socio-economic challenges in the latter – he sees promise in the models of Malaysia and Turkey. Fakhro deals with the particular situation in Bahrain characterized by ‘missed opportunities’ as well as regional military intervention, where peaceful demonstrations with initial moderate, legitimate demands pertaining to parliamentary representation and housing concerns that started in public areas such as the Pearl Roundabout were handled ineptly by the government, which chose to deal with them by force from the outset. Both sides crossed ‘red lines’ as demands escalated and demonstrators were gunned down not far from the royal palace. The King has called for an unconditional national dialogue; and while the situation has apparently calmed down for the moment, there remains grave concern over the future course of events. All three articles provide useful information and insight into the socio-political and economic dynamics of opposition movements in the Arab Gulf and the nature of their interaction with different types of political authority where it remains to be seen whether or not the prevailing climate of the ‘Arab Spring’ will persist in bringing about structural and genuine democratic reforms or whether protests will ultimately dissipate or assimilated through traditional means.

63 Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies Vol. XXXVI, No.1, Fall 2012 The Arab Spring and the Indian Urdu Press Mohamed Muddassir Quamar* The Arab world is going through a kind of churning for more than one year. Several social, economic, cultural and political factors including corruption, unemployment and bad governance have been cited as the underlying reasons for this unrest.1 The changes might not result in shortterm political stability or long-term ushering in of democracy to the Arab countries. While the outcome remains uncertain, rulers and governments in the region have to become more accountable, have to pave way for reforms or face being overthrown. The developments in the region began after the self-immolation of Tunisian street vendor Muhammad Bouazizi in December 2010. It triggered a massive protest against the Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The “Jasmine Revolution”, as it was termed by many, had a domino effect on other countries and is collectively known as the Arab Spring.2 The events were widely covered by Arab, regional and international media. How was Arab Spring reflected in the Urdu media in India, where there lives the third largest Muslim population in the world after Indonesia and Pakistan?3 Historically, India has strong political, economic, cultural and *Md Muddassir Quamar is a Doctoral Candidate at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. 1 Sean Foley, “The Arab Awakening and the New Disorder of Hope”, Occasional Paper, Middle East Institute, New Delhi, October 3, 2011, http://mei.org.in/front/cms/ publicationsDetail.php?id=MzA3&cid=Ng==. 2 There are criticisms over the expression Arab Spring. For example see, Rami G. Khouri, “Drop the Orientalist term “Arab Spring””, August 17, 2011, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/ Article.aspx?id=146410#axzz1v74UhBNx. 3 “The Future of the Global Muslim Population: An Interactive Feature, Sortable Data Tables: Muslim Population by Country”, The PEW Forum on Religion & Public Life, January 2011, http://features.pewforum.org/muslim-population/. 64 energy relations with the region.4 The presence of an estimated six million Indian expatriate population in the region makes it strategically very important for India. Seen in this wider context this research looks at the Urdu press in India and their coverage and responses to the “Arab Spring”. Urdu Media in India The Muslim-Urdu linkage is highly debated within India.5 Many leaders see this as the communalization of language and culture and periodically warn against such tendencies.6 According to the preliminary 2011 census figures, India’s Muslim population stands at 150 million and that of Urdu speaking population at 55 million.7 In other words, Urdu is not the lingua franca of every Muslim in India. At the same time, it is necessary to recognize that over time, especially since the partition of the sub-continent, popular perceptions about the linkage has strengthened. While it is not the exclusive language of the Indian Muslims, a significant majority of Urduspeaking population are Muslims. This Urdu speaking population is spread all over the country from Kashmir in the North to Tamil Nadu in the South and from Assam in the East to Gujarat in the West. The nature and extent of influence of this population upon India’s policy is debatable but political developments in the Middle East generate considerable interest, attention and at times protest from the Muslim community. India’s policy towards the Arab world as well as towards the three non-Arab countries of the region, namely, Iran, Israel and Turkey, are widely debated within the community. Therefore, the Urdu press can be seen as one of the most important medium of expression for the Indian Muslim population. There are more than a dozen major national and regional Urdu dailies/periodicals published from different parts of the country. These newspapers in comparison to other regional language dailies devote more attention to the developments in the Middle East. The Arab Spring has also been 4 For details see, S. Maqbul Ahmad, Indo-Arab Relations: An Account of India”s Relations with the Arab World from Ancient up to Modern Times (New Delhi: ICCR, 1969); and Prithvi Ram...