Prevention effectiveness of the "Internet Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" among MSM in Guangzhou: a dynamic model of infectious disease

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the effect of the "Interner Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" among MSM in Guangzhou, during 2010-2017, using a dynamic compartmental model. Methods: A dynamic compartmental model was developed to describe the HIV situation among MSM in Guangzhou. This model was parameterized on data from published literature or surveillance programs from the Guangzhou CDC. The Matlab 7.0 software was used for coding and analysis on collected data. HIV prevalence was analyzed among MSM under the status quo data and estimated the impact by the "Internet Plus" AIDS prevention services project. Results: HIV prevalence would have increased to 22.75% in 2017, and the total number of new HIV infections would have been 11 038, from 2010 to 2017, using the data status quo. Under the Guangzhou "Internet Plus" AIDS prevention services project, the prevalence of HIV among MSM from 2010 to 2017 was estimated to be 8.44%, 9.68%, 10.65%, 11.34%, 11.73%, 11.83%, 11.71% and 11.43% in Guangzhou, which were similar to the surveillance data. The total number of new infections in the past 8 years under the "Internet Plus" scenario was estimated to be 4 009. The "Internet Plus" program would have prevented 7 029 (63.68%) new infections during 2010-2017 as compared to the number, status quo. Conclusions: The fitting result of dynamic compartmental model seemed more reasonable, which was applicable to predict HIV epidemic among MSM in Guangzhou, suggesting that the increase of HIV prevalence had been curbed since the "Internet Plus" project which was launched in 2010, and the "Interner Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" had achieved the purpose as planned, epidemiologically.