Preparing Future Healthcare Professionals to Respond to Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Review of Evidence and Accreditation Standards

Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.

A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

Objective Health care and health professions education are becoming increasingly global, yet no formal international accrediting body exists for medical education. Among the challenges in developing international standards for medical education is the variation in program models, with some regions offering six-year bachelor’s degrees and others, including North America, customarily requiring a bachelor’s degree prior to admission to a 4-year graduate-level degree program. This study sought to determine the applicability of the USA Liaison Committee on Medical Education (LCME) accreditation standards internationally as the foundation for program development, quality improvement, and program evaluation in a program that follows the North American medical education model in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Methods Using a qualitative political, economic, sociocultural, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) analysis framework, we systematically assessed the applicability of each of the 93 LCME accreditation elements to the nascent doctor of medicine (MD) degree program at Khalifa University. Results All 93 elements in the most current LCME accreditation standards were deemed applicable internationally in a program developed in accordance with the North American model of medical education. Of these, three elements were deemed applicable with caveats in the legal or regulatory processes required to achieve comparable compliance outside of the USA. No elements were deemed not applicable in an international setting. Conclusions Our analysis demonstrates that the LCME accreditation standards are model-specific and can be effectively applied internationally in programs that follow the North American model of medical education. Countries in which no specialized medical education accrediting body exists can apply the LCME standards and achieve international benchmarks of quality in medical education through rigorous self-assessment and continuous quality improvement.

Interpersonal Social Work Skills for Community Practice

Evaluating the impact of future climate change on irrigated maize production in Kansas

Impacts of future climate change on rice yield based on crop model simulation—A meta-analysis

This paper illustrates the potential impact of future climate change on the archaeological resource of river catchments, specifically in Britain, but with reference to other examples across the globe, when considering issues of generic applicability. It highlights an area of the environmental record often neglected by policy makers and environmental planners when considering the impact of climate change; where cultural heritage has been considered in the past, an emphasis has been placed on the historic built environment and major monuments. Through studying the recent past, particularly the last 1,000 years, geomorphologists and geoarchaeologists can add much empirical data to these debates concerning system response. In addition to the impact of the changing intensity and pattern of natural geomorphic processes, human response to climate change ranging from new farming practices through to the implementation of mitigation strategies to minimise the effects of increased flood frequency and magnitude could be equally as damaging to the archaeological record if not managed through informed decision making.

Integrating hydrology with climate is essential for a better understanding of the impact of present and future climate on hydrological extremes, which may cause frequent flooding, drought, and shortage of water supply. This study assessed the impact of future climate change on the hydrological extremes (peak and low flows) of the Zenne river basin (Belgium). The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts basin-wide extreme flows and to provide a detailed overview of the impacts of four future climate change scenarios compared to the control (baseline) values. The scenarios are high (wet) summer (projects a future with high storm rain in summer), high (wet) winter (predicts a future with high rainfall in winter), mean (considers a future with intermediate climate conditions), and low (dry) (projects a future with low rainfall during winter and summer). These scenarios were projected by using the Climate Change Impact on HYDRological extremes perturbation tool (CCI-HYDR), which was (primarily) developed for Belgium to study climate change. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes by the 2050s (2036–2065) and the 2080s (2066–2095) by perturbing the historical daily data of 1961–1990. We found that the four climate change scenarios show quite different impacts on extreme peak and low flows. The extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 109% under the wet summer scenario, which could increase adverse effects, such as flooding and disturbance of the riverine ecosystem functioning of the river. On the other hand, the low (dry) scenario is projected to cause a significant decrease in both daily extreme peak and low flows, by as much as 169% when compared to the control values, which would cause problems, such as droughts, reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water and other water use demands. More importantly, larger negative changes in low flows are predicted in the downstream part of the basin where a higher groundwater contribution is expected, indicating the sensitivity of a basin to the impact of climate change may vary spatially and depend on basin characteristic. Overall, an amplified, as well as an earlier, occurrence of hydrological droughts is expected towards the end of this century, suggesting that water resources managers, planners, and decision makers should prepare appropriate mitigation measures for climate change for the Zenne and similar basins.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to show the impact of climate change on yield and water requirement of three rainfed crops in Setif region.Design/methodology/approachThis study investigates likely changes in annual temperature and precipitation over Setif high plains region (North East of Algeria) among three future periods: 2025, 2050 and 2075. The projections are based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. MAGICC-SCENGEN 5.3 v.2 was used as a tool for downscaling the four selected general circulation models (GCMs) output data. The expected impact of climate change on yield and water requirement of winter wheat, barley and olive was evaluated using the CROPWAT model.FindingsThe projection of the four GCMs showed that average temperature will increase by 0.73 to 3.42°C, and the precipitation will decrease by 1 to 52.7 percent, across the three future periods under the two SRES scenarios. Winter wheat and olive yields are expected to decrease under the three types of soils (heavy, medium and light). However, barley yield is expected to reduce under light soil only. Crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements are expected to increase under the two scenarios and across the three future periods.Originality/valueThis research is one of the first to study the impact of future climate change on water requirement and yield of rainfed crops over Setif region.

Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.

Climate change affects the environment and human life across the planet and it is expected that the negative consequences will be large, especially in developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. The objective of this study was to predict the impact of future climate change on the streamflow of Ugam watershed (Chirchik River Basin (CRB)) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, were used as future climate records for the period 2019−2048. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the streamflow from Ugam watershed through using the observed daily flow data from 2007 to 2011. The calibrated SWAT model was used to simulate the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River for 2019−2048. The results show that the stream discharge is expected to decrease by approximately 42% within thirty years, with a 1.4 °C increase in temperature and 286 mm decrease in precipitation. The peak point for the future period is 40.32 m3 /s in 2037 whereas the lowest discharge, predicted for 2048, accounts for 22.54 m3 /s. Our study enables to understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Ugam river and to increase the adaptive capacity of water users and managers in the region.

The impact of climate change on U.S. surface ozone levels is investigated. We simulated two 10 year periods using the global chemical transport model MOZART‐2 (Model of Ozone and Related chemical Tracers version 2): 1990–2000 and 2090–2100. In each case, MOZART‐2 is driven by meteorology from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Climate Systems Model (CSM) 1.0 forced with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1 scenario. During both periods the chemical emissions are fixed at 1990s levels, so that only changes in climate are allowed to impact ozone. The simulated surface ozone concentration during the 1990s is compared with observations from the Environmental Protection Agency's Aerometric Information Retrieval System (EPA AIRS) monitoring sites. Model‐measurement correlations are high, but MOZART‐2 overpredicts ozone especially over the eastern United States. The impact of climate change is calculated separately for background ozone and for the ozone generated through U.S. NOx emissions. Our results show that the response of ozone to climate change in polluted regions is not the same as in remote regions. MOZART‐2 predicts a 0–2 ppbv decrease in background ozone in the future simulation over the United States but an increase in ozone produced internally within the United States of up to 6 ppbv. The decrease in background ozone is attributed to a future decrease in the lifetime of ozone in regions of low NOx. Over the western United States the decrease in background ozone approximately cancels the increase in locally produced ozone. As a result, the main impact of future climate change on ozone is centered over the eastern United States, where future ozone increases up to 5 ppbv. We predict that in the future over the northeast United States, up to 12 additional days each year will exceed the maximum daily 8‐hour averaged ozone limit of 80 ppbv. Various climatic factors are identified which impact the net future increase in ozone over the United States including changes in temperature, water vapor, clouds, transport, and lightning NOx. Significant future changes are generally not found in planetary boundary layer height and precipitation.

ABSTRACTTo date, the majority of the research literature on the impacts of climate change has addressed the negative aspect, i.e. the risks associated with a future permanent modification of climate. Potential opportunities have received much less attention and are rarely transformed into monetary values. Furthermore, manufacturing is one of the economic sectors where the influence of climate change remains practically unknown, although the economic performance of some industrial activities depends directly on climatic conditions – bottled water and non‐alcoholic beverages (i.e. soft drinks and fruit juices) are among these. This paper aims to explore the link between weather and product sales in these sectors, and estimate in quantitative terms the potential impact of future climate change on their revenues. Historic data were explored through statistical analysis and appropriate regression models were developed. Models were applied for the historic (1961–90) and future climate (2021–50) and the difference in sales forms the expected quantified impact of climate change. The results indicate that significant opportunities may arise for some sectors from modifications in climate, provided their production infrastructure can meet the expected demand and their management strategies can successfully adapt to altered climatic conditions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two relict Liriodendron species by coupling the MaxEnt model and actual physiological indicators in relation to stress tolerance