Preliminary exploration on low-carbon technology roadmap of China’s power sector

Abstract

Climate change poses huge challenges to the sustainable development of human society. As a major CO 2 emission source, decarbonization of power sector is fundamental for CO 2 emission abatement. Therefore, considering the “carbon lock-in” effects, it’s critical to formulate an appropriate roadmap for low-carbon generation technologies. In this paper, key low-carbon technology solutions are firstly identified according to their developing prospects and the fundamental realities of China’s power sector. Then, costs, reduction effects and potentials for the key technology options are evaluated. On this basis, typical scenarios are selected and a scenario set is established which identifies and incorporates the key low carbon factors, and a multi-scenario analysis is implemented to China’s power sector based on a comprehensive power mix planning model. Then, contributions of CO 2 reduction among the key technology solutions are revealed. Prospect for CO 2 emission reduction is discussed, which informs the possible emission trajectories towards 2030. Finally, low-carbon technology roadmaps under specific scenarios are elaborated, which implies corresponding optimal evolution of power generation mix.