Preliminary analysis on COVID-19 case spectrum and spread intensity in different provinces in China except Hubei province

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the characteristics of COVID-19 case spectrum and spread intensity in different provinces in China except Hubei province. Methods: The daily incidence data and case information of COVID-19 were collected from the official websites of provincial and municipal health commissions. The morbidity rate, severity rate, case-fatality rate, and spread ratio of COVID-19 were calculated. Results: As of 20 March, 2020, a total of 12 941 cases of COVID-19 had been conformed, including 116 deaths, and the average morbidity rate, severity rate and case-fatality rate were 0.97/100 000, 13.5% and 0.90%, respectively. The morbidity rates in Zhejiang (2.12/100 000), Jiangxi (2.01/100 000) and Beijing (1.93/100 000) ranked top three. The characteristics of COVID-19 case spectrum varied from province to province. The first three provinces (autonomous region, municipality) with high severity rates were Tianjin (45.6%), Xinjiang (35.5%) and Heilongjiang (29.5%). The case-fatality rate was highest in Xinjiang (3.95%), followed by Hainan (3.57%) and Heilongjiang (2.70%). The average spread ratio was 0.98 and the spread intensity varied from province to province. Tibet had the lowest spread ratio (0), followed by Qinghai (0.20) and Guangdong (0.23). Conclusion: The intervention measures were effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and improved treatment effect in China. However, there were significant differences among different regions in severity, case-fatality rate and spread ratio.