Predictors of mortality among HIV–infected patients initiating anti retroviral therapy at a tertiary care hospital in Eastern India

Abstract

ObjectiveTo assess early mortality and identify its predictors among the ART naive HIV–infected patients initiating anti retroviral therapy (ART) available free of cost at the ART Centres. MethodsA retrospective cohort analysis of routinely collected programme data was done for assessing mortality of all ART naive adult patients who received first-line ART at a government tertiary care hospital in eastern India during 1st March 2009 and 28th February 2010. Bivariate and multiple regression analyses of the baseline demographic, clinical and laboratory records using SPSS 15.0 were done to identify independent predictors of mortality. ResultsThe mortality rate at one year was estimated to be 7.66 (95%CI 5.84-9.83) deaths/100 patient-years and more than 50% of the deaths occurred during first three months of ART initiation with a median time interval of 73 days. Tuberculosis was the major cause of death. ART naive patients with baseline serum albumin <3.5 mg/dL were eight (OR 7.9; 95%CI: 3.8-16.5) at risk of death than those with higher serum albumin levels and patients with CD4 count <100 cells/μ L were two times (OR 2.2; 95%CI1.1–4.4) at risk of death compared to higher CD4 counts. ConclusionsRisk of mortality is increased when ART is initiated at advanced stages of immunosuppression denoted by low serum albumin levels and CD4 cell counts. This highlights the importance of early detection of HIV infection, early management of opportunistic infections including tuberculosis and timely initiation of the antiretroviral drugs in the resource-limited countries, now available free in the Indian national ART programme.