Predictors of match performance in the South African Rugby Union Women's Premier Division

Abstract

Purpose Performance indicators in women's rugby union are under-researched. The aim of this study was to describe the match activities and determine the predictors for winning/losing and points difference in the South African Rugby Union (SARU) Women's Premier Division competition. Methods During the 2021 and 2022 seasons, SARU-coded matches included 33 indicators (including attacking, defensive, set plays, and error categories) which were analysed for two outcome variables: winning/losing and points difference (points for MINUS points against). Results The results of the study showed that for winning compared to losing, tries (OR = 6.48; p = 0.0001), goal kicking success % (OR = 1.03; p = 0.0245), and dominant tackles % (OR = 1.45; p = 0.0333) increased the odds of winning, whilst yellow cards decreased the odds (OR = 0.27; p = 0.0199). For points difference, Factor 1 (OR = 1.016) including variables related to clean breaks, tries and conversions thereof, were predictive of a larger points difference, whilst Factor 6 (positive tackles, lineout wins; OR = 0.958) favoured a close match/smaller points difference. Conclusion The predictive indicators differed from those found in previous literature. However, there was little to no data available on women's rugby union to compare to, and therefore comparisons were made to men's rugby. More data and studies are required to confirm these findings.