Predictors of hip fracture in 15 European countries: a longitudinal study of 48,533 geriatric adults using SHARE dataset.

Abstract

Hip fracture is a major cause of functional disability, mortality, and health costs. However, the identification and characterization of its causative factors remain poor. We investigated demography, handgrip strength (HGS), depression, and multiple age-associated comorbidities for predicting future hip fracture in individuals aged 50 or above from 15 European countries (n = 48,533). All participants were evaluated from 2013 to 2020 using four successive waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Altogether, 1130 participants developed hip fractures during the study period. We identified female gender, an advancing age from quinquagenarians onward, and a poor socioeconomic status as critical risk factors for future hip fracture. Having mobility difficulty, a low HGS (< 27kg in men, < 16kg in women) and higher scores on Euro-D depression scales were also significant risk factors for hip fracture. Summated scales of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cancer, Alzheimer's disease, and stroke did not appear as risk factors. Collectively, we report advancing age, female gender, low HGS, and depression as independent risk factors for hip fracture. Our findings are useful in identifying high-risk populations for hip fractures in pre-clinical settings before rigorous evaluation and treatment in clinics.