Abstract
Since the discovery of oil and gas in Nigeria in 1956, much gas has been flared because the operators pay little or no concern to its utilization, and as such, trillions of dollars have been lost. In this paper, a model is proposed using Time Series Regression Model (TSRM) and Time Series Neural Network (TSNN) to model the production, utilization and flaring of natural gas in Nigeria with the ultimate aim of observing the trend of each activity. The results show that TSNN has better predictive and forecasting capabilities compared to TSRN. It is also observed that the higher the hidden neurons, the lower the error generated by the TSNN.
Highlights
Natural gas was first discovered in Nigeria in 1956, at Afam, Rivers State, in association with oil during the drilling of Oloibiri well, which was the first commercial oil discovery in the country
We propose a simple time series neural network model
The time plot of all the variables that are of interest in the study shows that gas utilization and production rate steadily accelerated upward from the base year till the end
Summary
Natural gas was first discovered in Nigeria in 1956, at Afam, Rivers State, in association with oil during the drilling of Oloibiri well ( in Bayelsa State), which was the first commercial oil discovery in the country. Nigeria’s natural gas development is still at its infancy, but with very high potential for growth. Various literatures cite that Nigeria is more endowed with natural gas reserves than oil. Nigeria has been considered an oil rich nation in Africa as shown in Figure A1 currently, the country is Africa’s largest natural gas holder with a proven reserve of 186.99 tcf and the 7th as shown in Figure A2 and has been described as a gas province with oil pockets.
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