Predictive model preparation for surgical wound infection in adult patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty in high complexity hospital for years 2012 and 2014

Abstract

Operative wound infections of patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty have an incidence from 2% to 5%, generating impact on hospital stay, resource use, prolonged antibiotic therapy, including temporary or definitive sequelae. To generate a predictive model for surgical wound infection in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty between 2012 and 2014 at the High Complexity Hospital. Cohort of patients with total hip arthroplasty. A description of the epidemiological variables was made and a predictive model was generated by means of logistic regression. 441 patients were analyzed. The predictive model obtained included the variables: days of post-operative stay (OR 1.11 IC95% [1.03 - 1.20]), transfusion of at least one unit of red blood cells (OR 3.13 IC95% [1.17 - 10.86]), diagnosis of previous depression to surgery (OR 5.75 IC95% [1.32 - 25.32], non-compliance with antibioprophylaxis administration time (OR 5.46 IC95% [1.68 - 17.78], P < 0.001) and pseudo R2 = 0.2293. Score point of 13 points with sensitivity 44.4%, specificity of 91.6%, LR (+) 5.29, LR (-) 0.61, 1 to 6 points "low risk", 7 to 12 points "medium risk", 13 to 18 points "high risk", from 19 points as "maximum risk". the model presents a good predictive capacity of operative wound infection and adequately represents the cohort under study.