Abstract
DHF (Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever) is still a major health problem in Indonesia. One of the factors that led to an increase in dengue cases is uncertain climate that causes dengue fever is difficult to be predicted. Prediction is an important thing that is used to determine future events by identifying patterns of events in the past. When knowing the events that happen, it will make everyone to make better preparation for everything. This research is aimed at determining the accuracy of Tsukamoto Fuzzy method in the number of dengue patients in Puskesmas Purbalingga. Tsukamoto Fuzzy method can be used for prediction because it has the ability to examine and identify the pattern of historical data. Tsukamoto fuzzy that used to predict the number of dengue fever patients at Puskesmas Purbalingga has several stages. The first stage is the collection of climate data includes precipitation, humidity, water temperature and the data of dengue fever patients in Puskesmas Purbalingga. The next stage is processing the data that has been obtained. The last stage is to make predictions. Based on the results of the implementation by Tsukamoto Fuzzy method in predicting the number of dengue fever patients in Purbalingga for twelve months in 2016, it was obtained a percentage error (MAPE) of 8.13% or had an accuracy rate of 91.87 %. With the small value of MAPE and high accuracy, it shows that the system can predict well.
Highlights
Dengue Hemorrhagic fever is a major health problem in Indonesia
Global warming that causes the weather becoming erratic makes the number of dengue Hemorrhagic fever is difficult to know
According to Health Department of Purbalingga Regency among the regencies in Indonesia, Purbalingga Regency is an area suffering from dengue Hemorrhagic fever
Summary
Dengue Hemorrhagic fever is a major health problem in Indonesia. The number of cases and the spread of this deadly disease is increasing in line with the increasing mobility and population density. The population of Indonesia is more than 250 million people and the fourth rank in the country with the highest population in the world. According to Health Department of Purbalingga Regency among the regencies in Indonesia, Purbalingga Regency is an area suffering from dengue Hemorrhagic fever. It can be seen from the figures incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) equal to 64 per 100,000 population or 572 cases with 3 deaths (CFR = 0,5%) during 2013. This happened because until now there is no vaccine for dengue Hemorrhagic fever that
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