Abstract
The Land Market Value, defined as the total value of land price and quantity data are derived from data on housing values, is an important factor in the estimation of structure costs using price indexes for housing and construction costs. In this study, we gather and analyze 34 years' national data on past and present real estate transaction. According to the characteristics of raw data, we try to develop the potential Decomposition, Smoothing, ARIMA and other advanced forecasting models with appropriate transformations. Specifically, we employ an innovation space state underlying certain forecasting model. For regression analysis, we involves GDP, CPI, Construction Cost Index, population, unemployment rate, inflation rate and Purchasing Manage Index in multivariate statistical model. Most importantly, we obtain how to add value to business and apply skills set to real estate in a real world environment. The goal in providing crucial statistical method is to enable government and investors to make informed decisions regarding real estate.
Highlights
This paper aims to provide important information of real estate market in USA and potential problems and opportunities or buyer and seller
We mainly evaluate forecasting models based on the two performance measures of RMSE and AIC
The forecasting of land market value is more important and necessary for the economy of American, because the tendency of Land Market Value would be helpful for government and investor to examine the problem in housing market, make the appropriate policy and regulate the housing market
Summary
This paper aims to provide important information of real estate market in USA and potential problems and opportunities or buyer and seller. The fluctuation of land market value will have a great influence of the net worth of business and household. In this regard, Davis and Heathcote (2007) estimate that wings in residential land prices accounted for most of the variation in house prices over 1975-2006 for the United States as a whole. The land is an important component of wealth It is a source of variation in real estate prices and as collateral for loans, only a handful of studies have calculated land price indexes for the nation as a whole or for a broad set of cities.
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