Prediction of transmissivities, heads, and seepage velocities using mathematical modeling and geostatistics

Abstract

A geostatistical approach is developed for the prediction of log-transmissivity, hydraulic head, and ultimately seepage velocities in a two-dimensional model of a confined aquifer under steady state conditions. The primary goal is to assess the uncertainty in model predictions associated with the uncertainty and scarcity of input data. The method uses cokriging to predict the most likely values for these functions and uses conditional simulations to generate equally probable realizations of these functions. The method allows for model uncertainty in the prescription of the boundary heads. The method is sucessfully applied to an artificial aquifer.