Abstract
The effective thermal conductivity of rock (ETCR) is widely used in the field of geology engineering. However, the ETCR is influenced by various factors, and the determination of ETCR is difficult. This paper presents a group method of data handling (GMDH) technique to predict the ETCR. Totally 270 measurements containing four input variables (i.e., temperature T, pressure P, porosity n and density ρ) were collected. A GMDH model of rock thermal conductivity was proposed based on this database, with R2 and RMSE values of 0.940 and 0.126. In addition, several existing models are employed to compare with the GMDH model. According to the results, these models have similar change tendency. However, these existing models can only reflect the effect of temperature on the ETCR, while the GMDH model can reflect the effects of more parameters. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The results indicate that this model can well characterize the coupling relationship between the ETCR and two main parameters, i.e., temperature and pressure. The predicted ETCR increases with the increase of pressure, while it decreases with the increase of temperature. Finally, a graphical user interface (GUI) was established for practical application.
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