Abstract
Abstract. Stock market has been and will always be the central of the financial market. It is also a leading indicator of the economy react before the business cycle. Thus, predicted the trend of the stock market should be considered by market participants, policymakers and academicians. Simultaneously, technology stock market is gradually dominating the market. Under such a background, this paper will forecast the trend of the technology stock market based on a few technology companies, which are highly weighted in the technology industry, via the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. This study has successfully predicted the price of the technology stock market, which the predicted outcome is a close match to the actual price. The trend of the technology market analyzed by the ARIMA model with first order difference parameters, is going upward. The result represents American business cycle is undergoing a transition from contraction phase to recovery phase to some extent.
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