Prediction of shelter needs based on simulation results of evacuees choosing evacuation facilities due to a potential tsunami earthquake in Padang, Indonesia

Abstract

Tsunami disasters are predicted to occur in the West Sumatra region due to earthquakes. To deal with the tsunami hazard that will hit Padang City, the government has built several shelters and evacuation routes. At present, the number of evacuation facilities is still limited, this will cause community vulnerability in facing tsunami hazards. To overcome this vulnerable condition, it is necessary to determine the number of shelters needed to accommodate evacuees. In this study, the determination of the required number of shelters is done by simulating the number of evacuees who choose shelters during evacuation. The model of evacuee generation from 5 tsunami-prone zones in Padang City was created using a linear regression method. The model for selecting the type of evacuation facility in each zone uses a binary logit model. Prediction of shelter needs is carried out for minimum, normal and maximum conditions that may occur. From the simulation results, the number of evacuees who choose the shelter as a means of evacuation is obtained. The number of shelters needed in Padang City is a minimum of 6 units, normal 23 units and maximum 50 units.