Prediction of protection probability against Omicron BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 variants in symptomatic infections with prototype strain based on neutralization antibody levels

Abstract

Objective: To predict the protection probability of different clinical outcomes after reinfection with Omicron variant in symptomatic and unvaccinated COVID-19 patients who infected with prototype strain. Methods: The data used in this study were derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis which systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Europe PMC databases, included published and uploaded studies of dynamic changes of neutralizing antibodies in symptomatic COVID-19 patients from 1 January 2020 to 2 October 2022 and extracted the literature information, study design, serological experiment information and antibody results. According to the scatter distribution characteristics of antibody titer data, a generalized additive model based on Gaussian distribution was used to fit the titer value of neutralizing antibody based on logarithmic conversion and the dynamic change pattern of neutralizing antibody in symptomatic and unvaccinated COVID-19 patients infected with prototype strain over time was obtained. In this study, the fitted antibody titers of patients on the 28th, 51st, and 261st day after symptom onset was selected to predict the protection probability. Results: Neutralizing antibodies produced in symptomatic and unvaccinated patients infected with prototype strain could provide protection against Omicron reinfection, and the probability of protection gradually decreased with time. Neutralizing antibody level on day 28 after symptom onset provided protection probability of 30.3% (95%CI: 20.0%-45.5%) against reinfection, 51.5% (95%CI: 33.4%-75.9%) against symptomatic reinfection, and 91.2% (95%CI: 77.1%-97.7%) against severe reinfection caused by Omicron BA.5. The protection probability against Omicron BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 reinfections decreased significantly 261 days after symptom onset, showing 9.6%-12.9%, 18.4%-23.9% and 63.1%-70.3% against three clinical outcomes, respectively. At the same time point and against the same clinical outcome, the protection probability of BA.1 was the highest, followed by BA.4 and BA.5. Conclusions: Neutralizing antibodies induced in symptomatic and unvaccinated COVID-19 patients previously infected with the prototype strain have limited protection probability against Omicron BA.5 reinfections and symptomatic reinfections. The protection probability against Omicron BA.5 reinfections is 30.3% 28 days after symptom onset and decreases to about 10% after 261 days. However, the protection probability against severe reinfections is considerable, with over 90% 28 days after symptom onset and still exceeding 60% after 261 days.