Abstract

BackgroundsMyopia has become a global public health problem. Children with early onset of myopia are at particular risk of complications associated with myopia. Younger children and children with greater initial myopic refractive errors are at a greater risk of myopia progression. Therefore, it is essential to identify subjects at high risk of developing myopia to facilitate myopia prevention in the early stage, especially during the preschool period. The purpose of this study was to determine whether premyopia and myopia in preschool children can be predicted by easily obtainable parameters.MethodsData was collected in a population-based cohort. Comprehensive examinations included height, weight, refraction, axial length (AL), and corneal radius of curvature (CR), with a follow-up of 2 years. Parental myopia history was obtained from a questionnaire. Myopia was defined as spherical equivalent (SE) ≤ − 0.50 D. Premyopia was defined as − 0.50 D < SE ≤ + 0.75 D. Multivariate linear regression models were fitted to determine the associations between these parameters at baseline and future SE. To predict premyopia and myopia, Cox proportional hazard regression analysis coupled with a nomogram was used.ResultsA total of 830 children (433 boys and 397 girls) were included (40.83 ± 3.43 months old at baseline). A significantly negative relationship was observed in the multivariate analysis between baseline AL, AL/CR, two myopic parents, and the future SE after adjusting for age and gender (coefficient = − 0.291, coefficient = − 5.791, coefficient = − 0.273, respectively, both p < 0.001). Higher baseline AL, AL/CR (hazard ratio (HR) = 4.916, HR = 2.979, respectively, comparing the top quartile with the bottom quartile, both p < 0.001) and two myopic parents (HR = 1.756, compared to no myopic parents, p = 0.001) were associated with a higher risk of future onset of premyopia. From the nomogram, AL/CR was found to have the most enormous effect on survival. Different baseline AL and AL/CR values (both Log Rank p < 0.001) had different survival curves.ConclusionsAL and AL/CR could be used as obtainable indicators for identifying subjects at high risk of developing premyopia and myopia in young preschool children.

Highlights

  • Over the past decade, myopia has become a global public health problem

  • axial length (AL) and AL-to-CR ratio (AL/CR) could be used as obtainable indicators for identifying subjects at high risk of developing premyopia and myopia in young preschool children

  • We aimed to examine the associations between AL and AL/CR at baseline and future spherical equivalent (SE) in preschool children and identify factors for predicting premyopia and myopia

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Summary

Introduction

Myopia has become a global public health problem. The myopia boom is growing globally, and 49.8% of the world population is predicted to be myopic, and 9.8% of the world population is predicted to be high myopic in 2050 [1]. The prevalence of myopia for preschool children (younger than 7 years old) has been reported to be greater than 5% [2, 3]. Children with early onset of myopia are at particular risk of complications associated with myopia. Myopia progression over time could result in high myopia, which is related to some irreversible blinding complications, such as retinal detachment, myopic macular degeneration, and glaucoma [4]. Younger children and children with greater initial myopic refractive errors are at a greater risk of myopia progression [5, 6]. It is essential to identify subjects that are at high risk of developing myopia to facilitate myopia prevention in the early stage, especially during the preschool period. Factors for predicting premyopia or myopia onset have not been reported in preschool children

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