Abstract
Abstract Distribution map of South China tiger made from the Chinese State Forestry Administration survey report in 2001 and 33 environmental variables from open web datasets were gathered, four modeling methods of Logistic Regression (LR), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP), maximum entropy method (Maxent) were introduced to generate potential geographic distribution maps for South China Tiger in China. Then three statistical criteria of the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC), correlation (COR) and Kappa were calculated to evaluate the performance of the models, followed by analysis of major contribution variables. Results showed that, precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19, 61.8%), soil type (soil, 17.8%), precipitation of wettest quarter (bio16, 7.8%), mean diurnal range (bio2, 4.9%), forest coverage (tree_cover, 3.7%) were the five forcing environmental factors; 10 counties in provincial borders of Jiangxi, Fujian and Zhejiang in Wuyi Mountains should become the key areas for South China tiger conservation.
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