Abstract
In order to ensure the safety of maritime traffic in Liaoning sea area and improve the prediction accuracy of maritime traffic accidents. In this paper, the number of ship collision accidents in Liaoning sea area from 2012 to 2021 have been statistically analyzed, and the number of accidents have predicted by using the modified SCGM(1,1)C model modified by Markov chain, and have solved by Matlab programming. The results show that Markov theory can effectively overcome the shortage of volatility prediction of cloud grey system. Compared with SCGM(1,1)C model only, the average relative error of the improved model is reduced by 6.349 %, which provides a strong reference for the establishment of ship collision traffic warning mechanism in Liaoning sea area.
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