Abstract
The problem of increasing farmers’ income has been a hot issue of social concern. Understanding the farmers’ income and the overall development trend is conducive to the rational layout of the social economy and promotes the steady development of a well-off society. Based on this, the paper selects the per capita disposable income (PCDI) of farmers’ households from 2012 to 2019 in 11 cities of Hebei Province as the research object and applies the fractional grey model (FGM (1,1)) to predict farmers’ income from 2020 to 2024. The results show that the farmers’ income will increase in the next five years. However, the growth rate of farmers’ income is slow in the areas with a large base of farmers’ income and strong in the areas with a small base of farmers’ income. The area with the highest trend in the growth rate of farmers’ income is Zhangjiakou and the lowest place is Handan. Only Shijiazhuang’s income growth rate is on the rise. Finally, suggestions are given to promote farmers’ income in Hebei Province.
Highlights
In recent years, the government has been focusing on “three rural issues: agriculture, rural areas, and farmers” in rural work and “how to increase farmers’ income” has been a long-term work to tread
Income, investigate the income channels, and formulate relevant rural policies. e paper takes Hebei farmers’ income as the research object, the basic data are obtained from the per capita disposable income (PCDI) of farmers in different cities from 2012 to 2019, and FGM (1,1) is used to predict the farmers’ income from 2020 to 2024. en, the paper analyses the results and gives suggestions of promoting farmers’ income in Hebei Province
In combination with the trend chart of farmers’ income in Figure 1 and the average growth rate in Figure 2, it can be concluded that there is a large gap in the income level of farmers in the different areas of Hebei Province. e PCDI of Tangshan farmers is twice that of Chengde farmers
Summary
The government has been focusing on “three rural issues: agriculture, rural areas, and farmers” in rural work and “how to increase farmers’ income” has been a long-term work to tread. As a province in China, should consider the importance of predicting farmers’ income to promote the rural economy. E paper takes Hebei farmers’ income as the research object, the basic data are obtained from the PCDI of farmers in different cities from 2012 to 2019, and FGM (1,1) is used to predict the farmers’ income from 2020 to 2024. The government support and urbanization development levels had a certain influence on farmers’ income [7] Both national policies and measures to support agriculture could affect farmers’ income. Erefore, in this paper, the PCDI of farmers’ households in various cities of Hebei Province from 2012 to 2019 was used as the measurement of farmers’ income, the FGM (1,1) model was used to predict farmers’ income, and suggestions were put forward to promote farmers’ income. Using the time response formula, X (r) is solved: X (r) x(r)(1), x(r)(2), . . . , x(r)(n)
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