Abstract
Prediction of spatial and temporal variability of air temperature in areas with complex topography is still a challenge for numerical weather prediction models. Simulation of atmosphere over complex terrain requires dense and accurate horizontal and vertical grids. In this study, verification results of three configurations of the Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International High-Resolution Limited Area Model (ALADIN-HIRLAM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, using two different horizontal and vertical resolutions and applied to the Polish Western Carpathian Mountains, are presented. One model of the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system is tested in two horizontal and vertical resolutions. Predicted air temperatures are compared with observations from stations located in different orographies. A comparison of model results with observations was conducted for three cold season intervals in 2017 and 2018. Statistical validation of model output demonstrates better model representativeness for stations located on hill and mountain tops compared to locations in valley bottoms. A comparison of results for two topography representations (2 × 2 km and 1 × 1 km) showed no statistically significant differences of root mean square error (RMSE) and bias between model results and observations.
Highlights
Increasing knowledge about physical atmospheric processes contributes to improvement of the numerical models used for weather forecasting
Tests of new model configurations show that weather prediction for regions with complex topography constitutes a challenging task for the development of numerical weather forecasting (NWF) systems
Regions with highly complex relief are important, because of the impact on weather formation, and the occurrence of processes like katabatic flows and strong temperature inversions caused by stable stratification of the air volume within the valleys
Summary
Increasing knowledge about physical atmospheric processes contributes to improvement of the numerical models used for weather forecasting. Regions with highly complex relief are important, because of the impact on weather formation, and the occurrence of processes like katabatic flows and strong temperature inversions caused by stable stratification of the air volume within the valleys. Those processes have a significant impact on air quality, as they stimulate an increased concentration of air pollutants and the formation of smog episodes.
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