Prediction of Academic Manpower System of a Polytechnic Institution in Nigeria

Abstract

This study is on makovian approach in studying the behaviour of the academic staff grade transition of a Polytechnic institution in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to determine the proportion of staff recruited, promoted and withdrawn from the various grade levels in the institution over the years and also forecast the expected manpower structure of the institution for 2014/2015 session. Secondary data obtained from the Personnel Department of Delta State Polytechnic, Oghara for 2006/07 – 2011/12 sessions was used to evaluate the method. The findings from the analysis showed that the academic staff grade transition flow is stationary over the observed time period. Also, it was predicted that at the beginning of the 2014/15 session, that the expected staff structure of Delta State Polytechnic Otefe-Oghara will consist of 2 Assistant Lecturer’s, 15 Lecturer’s III, 11 Lecturer’s II, 12 Lecturer’s I, 9 Senior Lecturer’s, 7 Principal Lecturer’s and 7 Chief Lecturer’s; if the current recruitment and promotion policies in the institution remain unchanged. The predicted distributed structure of academic staff of Delta state Polytechnic for 2014/15 session was observed to be approximately normally distributed.