Predicting the potential distribution of the vine mealybug, Planococcus ficus under climate change by MaxEnt

Abstract

The vine mealybug, Planococcus ficus, is a major vineyard insect pest, and it represents a serious threat to grape production. P. ficus originated in Israel, and it has now spread throughout the Mediterranean, South Africa, and the Middle East. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unknown, and its spread could hamper both crop management and farmer's eradication efforts. This study used MaxEnt to determine the potential distribution of P. ficus under current climate conditions, and under projected global climate change using three different climate change scenarios and two representative concentration pathways. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the Mediterranean coast, South America, South Africa, Southern Australia, and North America are the primary potentially suitable areas and that the highly suitable ranges are mainly concentrated in these areas. Additionally, some areas need to strengthen quarantine measures, especially where the pest has not been reported, such as Australia, New Zealand and East Asia. Under different climate emission scenarios, the total potentially suitable and highly suitable areas all showed decreases compared with those under the current climate condition. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the greatest contributor (36.7%) to the P. ficus model. Our results will be useful for control and management of P. ficus, and can also be used as a reference for studies on other insect species.