PREDICTING THE EXPECTED VALUES OF THE MOST IMPORTANT VARIABLES DETERMINING THE FOOD SECURITY COEFFICIENT OF THE WHEAT CROP IN IRAQ UNTIL 2030

Abstract

The research aims to predict the expected values ​​of the most important variables determining the food security coefficient of the wheat crop in Iraq for the period (2021-2030), where the food security coefficient of the wheat crop was calculated. The results showed that the wheat food security coefficient was about (0.97), which indicates that the value of the security coefficient Food is less than the correct one, but it is greater than (0.50), which is enough for more than six months, which requires maintaining the level of food security of wheat and seeking to increase that rate by the concerned state agencies, either by expanding the cultivation of the wheat crop or increasing imports, which It leads to an accumulation in the strategic stock sufficient for local consumption to enhance the food security of wheat and the ability to face the emergency conditions that the country may go through, and then predict the expected values ​​of the most important variables specific to the food security factor of the wheat crop in Iraq until 2030, and the exponential smoothing method will be used in predicting the expected values ​​of the most important variables specific to the food security coefficient in Iraq, through the results of predicting the expected values ​​of the most important variables specific to the food security coefficient of the wheat crop during the current period. A study, where the method of double exponential smoothing (DES) was adopted, and it appeared that the prediction of the cultivated area is declining during the future years, and one of the reasons for this decline is the deterioration of soil fertility due to salinization and erosion as well as environmental conditions, while the rest of the variables are expected to be on the rise in the coming years.