Predicting the effects of environmental change on microbial transport

Abstract

Extended Abstract. A modeling framework was developed using SWAT to simulate the combined impacts of climate change and future land management variations on microbial transport for two catchments in the west of Ireland. The study focusses on plausible combined scenarios of climate, population, and agricultural production variations for the 2041-2060 period, and compares resultant impacts to a baseline existing period (1994-2007). The variation in monthly, seasonal and annual stream flow, and the daily microbial load (for E. coli) were considered in the framework. Results indicate that future changes in microbial load for both the Fergus and Black catchments typically follow projected seasonal fluctuations in precipitation and stream flow. Increased winter rainfall (intensity and frequency) will cause significant impacts on microbial transport and represents a period of increased risk. An increase in microbial source loads to land, concomitantly with projected changes in climate will exert greater microbial pollutant pressures on surface waters. The simulated climate change scenarios and microbial load projections from this work can prove useful for informing water resource managers and other decision makers about potential impacts. This information can instigate the development of preventative measures needed to alleviate increased catchment pollution from microbial contaminants (and other pollutants) in future years.