Predicting the current and future suitable-habitat distribution of tropical adult and juvenile targeted fishes in multi-sector fisheries of central Queensland, Australia

Abstract

Context Coastal and estuarine finfish species are responding to human-induced climate change by altering their distributions. In tropical regions, the species mostly affected by warming have limited acclimation capacity or live close to their upper thermal limits. Consequently, coastal fish assemblages may dramatically contract in range, experience declining population abundance or local extinction. Aim Here we use two different predictive modelling techniques that cope with non-linear empirical relationships between responses and environmental predictors to investigate distribution change. Methods The habitat-suitability models we use are the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the generalised additive model (GAM). We built the models for the period 2004–2019 with environmental data relevant to coastal systems. We incorporated climate change at current conditions, near future (2015–2054) and distant future (2055–2100) from CMIP6 climate models. Key results We identified bathymetry and sea-surface temperature to be key variables explaining the current and future distribution of coastal finfish and elasmobranchs of the Great Barrier Reef coast in central Queensland. Conclusions We showed how the distributions of valuable fisheries species will change under future warming conditions. Implications The objective is to inform fisheries management supporting the restructure of existing fisheries or the development of new resources for the dual purposes of conservation and food security.