Predicting stream N and P concentrations from loads and catchment characteristics at regional scale: A concentration ratio method

Abstract

We used a concentration ratio method to predict yearly and summer averages of stream total nitrogen, nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations at a regional scale. The ratio of the median daily concentration on the flow weighted annual concentration was used. This ratio characterizes the concentration dynamics of a catchment. We took advantage of the commonly used budget type models applied at a regional scale to relate concentrations to loads instead of directly to land uses, as has previously been done. The relationship was modeled with Boosted Regression Trees using catchment and stream characteristics along with loads and flows obtained from the SPARROW budget model. The ratio modeling approach was compared to a direct approach for concentration prediction, and also to a simple method where the mean ratio was used. The modeling performances of the ratio models were overall satisfying (r2 of 49% to 78%), and a better choice than the two other methods tested. This ratio modeling approach is based on a steady state assumption and largely ignores temporal dynamics. As such, this modeling technique does not replace the more physically-based techniques, but allows for hybrid approaches for improved spatial interpolations. This method could be used to predict effectively the impact (at equilibrium) of land use change and management scenarios on water quality at a regional scale.