Predicting problem drinking: a test of an interactive social learning model.

Abstract

This study tested a social learning model and explored the direct and interactive relationships between personality and environment in predicting problem alcohol use. We used longitudinal data from a nonclinical sample of males and females first tested in adolescence and followed into young adulthood. Hierarchial regression analyses were used to test main effects and interaction models. The cross-sectional data supported an interactive social learning model. Both personality and environment variables significantly predicted problem drinking. Two interactions between heavy drinking peer groups and personality variables were significant. Contrary to our hypothesis, the direction of the interaction was negative. In contrast, the longitudinal analyses did not provide strong support for our interactive model. Personality variables were significant predictors longitudinally, but in only one analysis did an environment variable significantly predict problem drinking. Furthermore, none of the interactions was significant predictors over time. Overall, the findings suggest that social learning models based on the interaction of personality and environmental influences may be more appropriate for predicting concurrent, as opposed to future problems, and that future research should include person-environment interactions. In addition, cultural tolerance of heavy drinking may be an important determinant of the role of psychological vulnerability in the development of problem drinking.