Predicting Mohs surgery complexity by applying machine learning to patient demographics and tumor characteristics.

Abstract

Mohs micrographic surgery (MMS) is considered the gold standard for difficult‐to‐treat malignant skin tumors, whose incidence is on the rise. Currently, there are no agreed upon classifiers to predict complex MMS procedures. Such classifiers could enable better patient scheduling, reduce staff burnout and improve patient education. Our goal was to create an accessible and interpretable classifier(s) that would predict complex MMS procedures. A retrospective study applying machine learning models to a dataset of 8644 MMS procedures to predict complex wound reconstruction and number of MMS procedure stages. Each procedure record contained preoperative data on patient demographics, estimated clinical tumor size prior to surgery (mean diameter), tumor characteristics and tumor location, and postoperative procedure outcomes included the wound reconstruction technique and the number of MMS stages performed in order to achieve tumor‐free margins. For the number of stages complexity classification model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.79 (good performance), with model accuracy of 77%, sensitivity of 71%, specificity of 77%, positive prediction value (PPV) of 14% and negative prediction value (NPV) of 98%. The results for the wound reconstruction complexity classification model were 0.84 for the AUROC (excellent performance), with model accuracy of 75%, sensitivity of 72%, specificity of 76%, PPV of 39% and NPV of 93%. The ML models we created predict the complexity of the components that comprise the MMS procedure. Using the accessible and interpretable tool we provide online, clinicians can improve the management and well‐being of their patients. Study limitation is that models are based on data generated from a single surgeon.