Predicting model of natural gas price based on a multi-strategy GWO-LSTM algorithm

This study examines the quantitative conditions under which an energy metering pricing model is proposed to increase both gas merchant profits and gas customer consumer surplus compared to a volumetric pricing model. The quantitative condition is found to be related to factors such as the standard unit calorific value of natural gas prescribed by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other relevant government departments under the energy metering pricing model. This paper establishes a mathematical model based on optimization theory to explore the operational decisions of city gas suppliers in the volumetric and energy metering and pricing modes, respectively, under the condition of relatively stable natural gas sales price. The results of the study show that DAC and other authorities can regulate the standard unit calorific value of natural gas under the energy metering and pricing model by regulating the standard unit calorific value of natural gas. This affects the incentives of gas dealers to produce and operate, guides the preference of gas users for natural gas energy metering and pricing, and results in the derivation of formulas for a reasonable range of standard unit calorific values for natural gas. The findings of this paper provide theoretical support to promote the reform of natural gas energy measurement and pricing, and contribute to the development of the natural gas industry.

Unprecedented increases in European natural gas prices observed between late 2021 and mid 2022 raise a question about the sources of these events. In this article we investigate this topic using a time-varying parameters structural vector autoregressive model for crude oil, US and European natural gas prices. This flexible framework allows us to measure how disturbances specific to the analyzed markets propagate within the system and how this propagation mechanism evolves in time. Our findings are fourfold. First, we show that oil prices are hardly affected by shocks specific to natural gas markets, whether in the US or Europe. Second, we demonstrate that oil shocks have limited impact on US natural gas prices, which points to the decoupling of both markets. Third, we evidence that over longer horizons natural gas prices in Europe are still mostly determined by oil shocks, with idiosyncratic disturbances leading to short-lived decoupling of both commodity prices. Fourth, we illustrate that along the gradual shift from oil price indexation to gas-on-gas competition, the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to European natural gas prices has increased. Nonetheless, we discuss why the notion that EU natural gas and crude oil prices have decoupled might be premature.

An Econometric Analysis of Correlated Discrete Event Impact on the Price of Natural Gas: The Nord Stream’s Effect on European Markets

Natural gas, a cleanest fossil fuel, has become more and more popular in recent periods because of its being used in commercial, industrial, power generation and residential applications. Because of its uses and economic implications, Natural gas prices are affected primarily by the market supply and demand functions. Factors like production, imports and storage inventory levels on the supply side influence gas prices. Increases in supply results in gas prices down while decreases in supply tend to push gas prices up. Increased gas prices tend to encourage increased gas production, imports and sales while declining gas prices result in the opposite effects. Factors, like weather, temperature, economic conditions and petroleum prices, play a key role in increases/decreases in demand. Our aim in this study is to analyze the Canadian and US natural gas markets, and for the purpose of prediction, to fit appropriate models to establish the functional relationship between Natural gas prices and covariates like energy demand and supply and economic growth indicators. We evaluate the statements of codependence among various cofactors contributing to gas prices. We consider a novel methodology of modeling the functional relationship by applying various piecewise polynomials and study the efficiency by carrying the prediction error analysis.

Introduction: A lot of factors influence how much crude oil and gasoline prices fluctuate. Various crises, including war and political unrest, the economic and financial crisis, terrorist actions, and natural catastrophes, have had a significant impact on crude oil and gas prices throughout the last several decades. The robust regression analysis approach is beneficial for investigating the influence of the explanatory variable’s diesel and petrol prices. Statistics reveal that some variables, events, and crises have a significant impact on diesel and gasoline prices. To reject the least significant components and proceed to additional regression analysis on the most impacted variables to minimize the number of variables, the ordinary least squares approach was used. The study model explains how these components interact and aids in price forecasting to assist the economy and avoid undesirable scenarios. Objectives: To identify and understand the key factors influencing the fluctuations in diesel and petrol prices, including supply and demand, crude oil prices, government taxes, and currency exchange rates. To analyse historical and current trends in diesel and petrol prices, enabling predictions about future price movements. Methods: Robust Regression Analysis for Identify relationships between fuel prices and influencing factors and Correlation Analysis for Measure the degree to which two or more variables. The Trend Charts to use line graphs or bar charts to visualize price changes over time and Forecasting Models to use machine learning algorithms to predict future fuel prices based on historical data. Results: The following 19 years of gasoline and diesel prices in India served as the foundation for the research project "Forecasting Model for Petrol and Diesel Price" (December 2001–December 2019). To achieve its objectives, this study evaluated secondary data gathered from multiple secondary sources and used a variety of statistical approaches, including trend analysis, regression analysis, and one-way ANOVA. Gasoline shortages are likely to remain, denying fuel to those in most need at any costs, while wealthy countries compete for limited supply. Conclusions: In summary, the prices of natural gas and crude oil have fluctuated throughout time and will continue to do so. Natural gas and crude oil prices are influenced by a variety of variables, including large environmental disasters, the status of the economy, and the adoption of new technologies. The multiple regression establishes a predictive relationship between variables for both dependent and independent variables. Using data and historical records, the multiple regression technique found and indicated a link between factors that significantly influenced natural gas and crude oil prices.

Natural gas infrastructure is growing and global LNG volumes are set to expand substantially. This results in more trade between different regions of the world and emergence of a more competitive and relatively more integrated global gas market. In addition, several key markets are currently undergoing structural reform with the aim of opening them to competition. In line with these changes in the global market, gas pricing methods also need to be adapted. This paper discusses the challenges of natural gas pricing and price review in this new market environment. Firstly, the current structure of the global and regional gas markets is analyzed. Secondly, challenges in natural gas pricing and price review are discussed, and in this context oil-indexation and hub-indexation are analyzed in detail. Thirdly, the recommended framework for pricing and price review in the more competitive global market are presented. The pricing mechanism and price review framework should be tailored to the characteristics of the gas market and the stages of growth and maturity of the market.

The considerable share of natural gas in the aggregated gross available energy clearly indicates the resource’s importance for the energy security of EU states. Natural gas shortages caused by energy crises result in the resource’s price increases in foreign markets. The condition of the global energy system translates directly to the prices of natural gas for households. The main research objectives were the analysis of prices of household natural gas in the EU, and identification of key factors affecting the prices of household natural gas in Poland and their effect on the prices established in domestic tariffs. The secondary data analysis method (desk research) was used in the research. The 2017–2022 data were acquired from Eurostat, the Polish distributor’s (PGNiG SA) tariffs, the Energy Regulatory Office and exchange information. The paper fills a research gap in the disparity of prices of natural gas supplied to final individual recipients in the EU. It was established that the sudden increases in natural gas purchase prices on energy resource exchanges translated into a similarly dynamic increase in the household gas fuel prices. The price data concerning Poland were compared to analogous data from other EU member states. It was established that in the period between the first half of 2021 and the first half of 2022, gas prices in the EU increased by over 34% on average (maximum of 150%). It was concluded that the household natural gas prices in Poland, established in the officially approved distribution tariffs of PGNiG SA, are substantially affected by two factors: energy resource purchase prices on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE), and purchase prices on foreign markets. The main reason for price increases was the unforeseen substantial changes in the conditions of conducting business activity by PGNiG SA in terms of gas fuel trading, resulting from the increase in high-methane natural gas purchase price at the TGE. On the other hand, the increases in purchase price of natural gas imported from EU or EFTA member states by 2021 have moderately translated into increases in prices established in officially approved tariffs. A similar effect of household natural gas price increase has also occurred in other EU member states but was not uniform. The effect depended on the volume of gas production and consumption in the given country, and on the diversity of gas sources that determined the resource’s purchase price.

Analysis of individual natural gas consumption and price elasticity: Evidence from billing data in Italy

This paper studies hierarchical modeling of the optimal development of facilities of multilevel gas supply systems (GSSs), given the general issues of their aggregation and contributes corresponding development and pricing models. The models for the comprehensive development of GSSs are considered at three hierarchical levels: 1) structure optimization and investment processes 2) optimization of seasonal gas consumption, reliability analysis and synthesis 3) optimization of parameters of a facility with its reliability factored in, as illustrated by the main gas pipeline. Three pricing models are proposed: determination of retail prices and tariffs for natural gas for certain categories and groups of consumers determination of wholesale gas price components for federal subjects of Russia determination of supply and demand equilibrium between natural gas suppliers and consumers. The development and pricing models were put to test to calculate the optimal volume of gas production and transportation taking into account seasonality of consumption and reliability of GSSs equipment performance, as well as to set natural gas prices for federal subjects of Russia.

The relationships between the prices of major energy commodities have been a widely discussed topic in energy market analyses. This study examines whether the substantial changes observed in recent years have influenced the price linkages between coal and natural gas. By comparing selected price indices from European and Asian markets, we assess the evolving interdependencies between these fuels. The results indicate that the most significant changes in price linkages have occurred in European markets. Both VAR and ARDL model-based tests reveal a shift in the direction of causal relationships. Between 2006 and 2011, coal prices significantly influenced natural gas prices, with no strong evidence of reverse causality. However, in the more recent period (2018–2023), the relationship reversed—natural gas prices now have a significant impact on coal prices, while the reverse linkage has weakened. In Asian markets, the changes were less pronounced, particularly for Japanese import gas prices based on lagged average formulas. However, in the most recent period, a notable influence of Indonesian import gas prices on Australian coal prices emerged, mirroring trends observed in Europe. These findings highlight the increasing role of natural gas in shaping energy commodity prices, especially in Europe, where its growing importance in power generation has contributed to this shift. Additionally, the post-2018 period has been marked by significant supply disruptions, particularly in Europe, with geopolitical factors playing a crucial role in amplifying the importance of natural gas prices.

Wood biomass use for energy in Europe under different assumptions of coal, gas and CO2 emission prices and market conditions

The study examined the role of natural gas consumption and price in enhancing trade among top gas producing nations in Africa. To accomplish the study's objective, data on natural gas consumption, natural gas price, and gasoline motor fuel (used as a reference variable) was gathered from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency. These data were then analysed using the panel ARDL methodology to examine the relationship between trade openness and natural gas consumption and price in the six leading gas producing nations in Africa – Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, and Gabon. The findings of our study indicates that a rise in the price of natural gas has a positive impact on the trade and growth levels in the economies of the leading gas-producing nations in Africa. As the price rises, there is a corresponding increase in commerce, particularly in exports. This leads to a growth in real GDP and a greater contribution of the energy sector to the overall economic development. The increase in trade and economic development leads to greater trade openness, with the price of natural gas playing a crucial role in this improvement. The trade facilitation in the chosen African nations that produce natural gas was greatly hindered by the high prices of natural gas (natural gas consumption) and the usage of petrol for vehicle fuel. Based on these findings, the study suggested that: liberalising the oil and gas sector in gas producing nations would be beneficial to their economy. This would encourage competition, stabilise prices, strengthen gas infrastructure, and boost trade and development in gas producing nations in the African sub region.

At Global level, it is well conversant basic premise that Energy is a precious resource that has an inherent potential to amplify or constrict the growth potential of any economy as a common phenomenon. In an Indian Scenario, as on recent estimate April, 2021 conventional feedstock coal and natural gas contribute gigantic proportionate share of 61.3percent, with a meagre share of 38.8 percent by renewable energy. Owing to commensuration of power requirements of 1.35 billion population, India aspires to leverage the portion of natural gas in the sustainable renewable resource combination of clean energy basket by 2030 in its decarbonization efforts. At this crucial juncture, there is an imperative need to examine the cost effectiveness of producing electricity, based on fuel input natural gas instead of dirty coal. The paper presents pertinent econometric models with a specific objective of evaluating the electricity price differentials with Gas versus Coal as feedstock. For this purpose, probability sampling techniques were deployed in choosing Andhra Pradesh Power plants. The pricing model has used time series data from the period of historic times 1974–1994 and contemporary times of 2013–2020 by applying least square method of linear regression algorithms. The variables used in the estimation are Coal Prices, Natural Gas Prices and Electricity Prices at All India level. From the four specifications of estimated Econometric Models, the coefficients of electricity prices with respect to coal prices or natural gas prices are inelastic. Based on Statistical criteria, all the constants are remarkably noteworthy at 5 percent and 1 percent level along with trend. To eliminate the problem of autocorrelation, model 2 has been estimated by applying Cochran Orchott method. The projections clearly indicate that the electricity prices with natural gas are more expensive compared to coal, as the gas-based turbine plants are less polluting and the Government must optimize the actual costs in a manner that common man is not affected and it leads to sustained economic development.

Untangling the entanglement of US monetary policy uncertainty and European natural gas and carbon prices

The gas transmission and distribution industry believes that available supplies of gas energy will range from 23 to 31 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) by the year 2000, as conventional gas production is increasingly supplemented by supplies from supplemental and non-conventional sources. Under the right set of price and regulatory conditions, gas demand can increase in the traditional heating, industrial fuel and feestock applications, as well as in such new non-traditional uses as cogeneration, natural gas vehicles and select gas use with coal. Gas prices are rising rapidly enough under the existing law between now and 1985, so that concerns of a sudden price increase after deregulation in that year may be somewhat overstated -- as long as indefinite price escalators, take-or-pay, and other issues in gas purchase contracts are fully resolved beforehand.