Predicting leishmaniasis outbreaks in Brazil using machine learning models based on disease surveillance and meteorological data

This study presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) models for predicting Wind Turbine (WT) power output based on environmental variables such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. Along with Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), the following ML models were looked at: Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Extra Trees (ET), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). Using a dataset of 40,000 observations, the models were assessed based on R-squared, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). ET achieved the highest performance among ML models, with an R-squared value of 0.7231 and a RMSE of 0.1512. Among DL models, ANN demonstrated the best performance, achieving an R-squared value of 0.7248 and a RMSE of 0.1516. The results show that DL models, especially ANN, did slightly better than the best ML models. This means that they are better at modeling non-linear dependencies in multivariate data. Preprocessing techniques, including feature scaling and parameter tuning, improved model performance by enhancing data consistency and optimizing hyperparameters. When compared to previous benchmarks, the performance of both ANN and ET demonstrates significant predictive accuracy gains in WT power output forecasting. This study's novelty lies in directly comparing a diverse range of ML and DL algorithms while highlighting the potential of advanced computational approaches for renewable energy optimization.

Predicting rainfall is a challenging and critical task due to its significant impact on society. Timely and accurate predictions are essential for minimizing human and financial losses. The dependence of approximately 60% of agricultural land in India on monsoon rainfall implies the crucial nature of accurate rainfall prediction. Precise rainfall forecasts can facilitate early preparedness for disasters associated with heavy rains, enabling the public and government to take necessary precautions. In the North-Western Himalayas, where meteorological data are limited, the need for improved accuracy in traditional modeling methods for rainfall forecasting is pressing. To address this, our study proposes the application of advanced machine learning (ML) algorithms, including random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural network (ANN), and k-nearest neighbour (KNN) along with various deep learning (DL) algorithms such as long short-term memory (LSTM), bi-directional LSTM, deep LSTM, gated recurrent unit (GRU), and simple recurrent neural network (RNN). These advanced techniques hold the potential to significantly improve the accuracy of rainfall prediction, offering hope for more reliable forecasts. Additionally, time series techniques, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, arma errors, trend, and seasonal components (TBATS), are proposed for predicting rainfall across the altitudinal gradients of India’s North-Western Himalayas. This approach can potentially revolutionise how we approach rainfall forecasting, ushering in a new era of accuracy and reliability. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed algorithms were assessed using meteorological data obtained from six weather stations at different elevations spanning from 1980 to 2021. The results indicate that DL methods exhibit the highest accuracy in predicting rainfall, as measured by the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), followed by ML algorithms and time series techniques. Among the DL algorithms, the accuracy order was bi-directional LSTM, LSTM, RNN, deep LSTM, and GRU. For the ML algorithms, the accuracy order was ANN, KNN, SVR, and RF. These findings suggest that altitude significantly affects the accuracy of the models, highlighting the need for additional weather stations in this mountainous region to enhance the precision of rainfall prediction.

The prediction of wind energy generation is important to enhance the performance and dependability of renewable energy systems due to the rising demand for wind-generated electricity and advancements in wind energy technology competitiveness. This study leverages advanced machine learning (ML) and some other statistical and deep learning based time series forecasting models to enhance the accuracy of wind energy predictions. This comprehensive analysis includes nine ML models—Linear Regression, Random Forests (RF), Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), AdaBoost, XGBoost, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Neural Networks—as well as Four time-series forecasting models—ARIMA, Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and GRU. Each ML model underwent rigorous cross-validation to ensure optimal performance. The assessment criteria utilized here comprised the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the R² Score. It was found that among the nine ML models, Random Forests, GBM and KNN consistently provided superior accuracy and robustness, making them the top choices for wind energy prediction whereas the performance of linear regression, SVM and SVR were very poor for the considered dataset. From the experiment, Random Forest, GBM, and KNN showed the best performance with low MSE values of 0.77, 1.95, and 1.51 respectively, while other models had MSEs above 7.5, with AdaBoost reaching 30. Their RMSEs (0.88, 1.40, 1.23) and MAEs (0.093, 0.73, 0.10) also indicate strong predictive accuracy compared to the rest.In this paper, time series forecasting, TCNs, LSTM and GRU networks showed strong capabilities in capturing temporal dependencies and trends within the wind energy data. Visualization techniques were employed to compare model performances comprehensively, providing clear insights into their predictive power. Therefore, this present study offers a robust framework for researchers and practitioners aiming to leverage machine learning and time series forecasting in the realm of renewable energy prediction.

This work focuses on the use of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals to classify four human emotions, i.e., amused, disgust, sad, and scared that are elicited by custom-made video clips. The proposed model uses the independent component analysis (ICA) for artifact removal, band power and Hjorth parameters for feature extraction, and neighborhood component analysis (NCA) and minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) for feature selection. These computational techniques are combined because when individually used, they tend to give better accuracy results. However, they are not jointly used in many EEG-based emotion studies. A comparison has been made on the results obtained from six machine learning models, namely, decision trees, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, naive Bayes, random forest, and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN). The highest accuracy attained in this study is 99.1% that used long short-term memory recurrent neural network as a machine learning model, a combined NCA and mRMR for feature selection, and a combined band power and Hjorth parameters for feature extraction.

Introduction: Air pollution is a significant global health challenge, contributing to the deaths of millions of people annually. Among these pollutants, Particulate Matter (PM2.5) is the most harmful to the respiratory system causing serious health problems. This study focused on predicting PM2.5 in the air of Islamabad, capital of Pakistan by using machine learning and deep learning models. Materials and methods: Two machine learning models (Decision Tree and Random Forest) and four deep learning models including Multi-Layer Neural Network (MLNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) are used in the study. Each model's performance was assessed by using statistical indicators including coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE). These models are also ranked based on their performance by compromise programming technique. Results: Machine learning models performed better in the training phase by achieving higher R2 values of 0.98 and 0.97 but couldn’t maintain the same performance in the testing phase. Whereas the deep learning models performed best in both the training and testing phases. MLNN model attained higher R2 value of 0.98 in training and 0.88 in testing and is evaluated as top-ranked prediction model in predicting particulate matter PM2.5. Whereas,LSTM, GRU, RNN, Decision Tree, and Random Forest are placed at the 2nd,3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th positions having R2 values of 0.86, 0.87, 0.82, 0.99, and0.97 during training and 0.71, 0.69, 0.69, 0.75, and 0.85 respectively during testing. Conclusion: Deep learning models, especially MLNN, showed strong performance in predicting PM2.5 as compared to the machine learning models.

Research in diabetes, especially when it comes to building data-driven models to forecast future glucose values, is hindered by the sensitive nature of the data. Because researchers do not share the same data between studies, progress is hard to assess. This paper aims at comparing the most promising algorithms in the field, namely Feedforward Neural Networks (FFNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks, Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Gaussian Processes (GP). They are personalized and trained on a population of 10 virtual children from the Type 1 Diabetes Metabolic Simulator software to predict future glucose values at a prediction horizon of 30 minutes. The performances of the models are evaluated using the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the Continuous Glucose-Error Grid Analysis (CG-EGA). While most of the models end up having low RMSE, the GP model with a Dot-Product kernel (GP-DP), a novel usage in the context of glucose prediction, has the lowest. Despite having good RMSE values, we show that the models do not necessarily exhibit a good clinical acceptability, measured by the CG-EGA. Only the LSTM, SVR and GP-DP models have overall acceptable results, each of them performing best in one of the glycemia regions.

To comply with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs), in particular with SDG 3, SDG 11, and SDG 13, a reliable air pollution prediction model must be developed to construct a sustainable, safe, and resilient city and mitigate climate change for a double win. Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models have been applied to datasets in Macau to predict the daily levels of roadside air pollution in the Macau peninsula, situated near the historical sites of Macau. Macau welcomed over 28 million tourists in 2023 as a popular tourism destination. Still, an accurate air quality forecast has not been in place for many years due to the lack of a reliable emission inventory. This work will develop a dependable air pollution prediction model for Macau, which is also the novelty of this study. The methods, including random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural network (ANN), recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU), were applied and successful in the prediction of daily air pollution levels in Macau. The prediction model was trained using the air quality and meteorological data from 2013 to 2019 and validated using the data from 2020 to 2021. The model performance was evaluated based on the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson’s correlation coefficient (PCC), and Kendall’s tau coefficient (KTC). The RF model best predicted PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and CO concentrations with the highest PCC and KTC in a daily air pollution prediction. In addition, the SVR model had the best stability and repeatability compared to other models, with the lowest SD in RMSE, MAE, PCC, and KTC after five model runs. Therefore, the results of this study show that the RF model is more efficient and performs better than other models in the prediction of air pollution for the dataset of Macau.

A new machine learning (ML)/statistical-based methodology for conditioning and predicting production data for a well pad has been developed. Typically, data conditioning involves outlier detection, missing data, data imputation, and smoothing. Time-series production data prediction can be challenging because the target (wellbore oil production) depends on large-scale, high-dimensional data sets with unknown distributions and is influenced by missing data and outliers. Hence, data conditioning is key for accurate predictions. The current work is the first attempt at using ensemble ML and statistical techniques, such as multilayer perceptron (MLP), principal component analysis (PCA), and support vector regression (SVR), for well pad data conditioning using recently disclosed subsurface and production data from a field in the southern area of the Norwegian North Sea. The time-series forecasting based on large-scale, high-dimensional conditioned and cleaned data sets is also presented. The data with an oil production rate greater than 10 Sm3 have been retained for data cleansing, which reduced the size of the production well data set by 14.9%. Outliers are detected using the z-score method. The missing values are predicted using a trained ML model on all available nonmissing data. The procedure first predicts the downhole missing values from all the wells, including the available neighboring wells, and then uses these features to predict other missing values for the well pad. In this paper, the two approaches implemented and compared for prediction of missing data are MLP and SVR, and PCA is performed to extract the most important data features. Production data with 12 related variables (i.e., dates, hours, temperature, pressure, etc.) are used to explore the complex nonlinearity of features and estimate wellbore oil production with ML and deep-learning models. Conventional SVR and MLP methods are implemented as the benchmark. During this work, more than 60% of the missing and abnormal data from the field data set are detected and imputed using advanced ML methods, such as MLP and SVR with radial basis function kernel. More than 6% of data are outliers and are removed using the z-score method. The modified SVR with time-series data structure and long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithms are used for the comparisons. An R-squared (R2) of 98% is achieved for both the algorithms; however, LSTM has the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) results compared to SVR. Data conditioning is conventionally performed using statistical techniques, but here, an ensemble of ML techniques is used depending on the available data. This paper presents a new methodology to perform data conditioning and production prediction for a well pad using ML and neighboring well data. The ML algorithms used are highly efficient, as demonstrated by the results.

Highlights The monitoring of HABs can be improved using ML models for chlorophyll-a prediction. ML model selection for HABs monitoring depends on target objectives. Random forest model predicts chlorophyll-a better when the temporal dimension is not considered. The LSTM model is essential for making time-dependent chlorophyll-a predictions for HABs monitoring. Abstract. The complex dynamics of freshwater harmful algal blooms (HABs) necessitate proactive monitoring approaches to mitigate their impacts. The rapid breakthrough in computing prowess and statistical advances is triggering the development of data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML) models, which have been shown in different fields to be instrumental in finding patterns for explaining relationships in observed data. This study assesses the ability of ML models for HABs monitoring in a lake using chlorophyll-a concentration as the index. The selected models for this study were regression tree, random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models, with the last two models able to consider the temporal sequence of obtained water quality datasets. The results showed that the RF model with R2, mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.87 µgL-1, 0.97 µgL-1, and 3.53 µgL-1, respectively, outperformed the SVR, MLP, and regression tree models. LSTM model with MAE and RMSE of 2.39 µgL-1 and 3.29 µgL-1, respectively, predicted temporal dynamics of chlorophyll-a better than GRU, although with more runtime, and showed the potential for developing real-time HAB monitoring and early warning systems. The findings reveal the robustness of the chosen ML models, thereby shedding light on crucial factors that necessitate careful deliberation by researchers and policymakers in determining the most suitable approaches for monitoring HABs. Keywords: Cyanobacteria, Early warning systems, Freshwater, HABs, Machine learning models.

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is a specific recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture that was designed to model temporal sequences and their long-range dependencies more accurately than conventional RNNs. In this paper, we explore LSTM RNN architectures for large scale acoustic modeling in speech recognition. We recently showed that LSTM RNNs are more effective than DNNs and conventional RNNs for acoustic modeling, considering moderately-sized models trained on a single machine. Here, we introduce the first distributed training of LSTM RNNs using asynchronous stochastic gradient descent optimization on a large cluster of machines. We show that a two-layer deep LSTM RNN where each LSTM layer has a linear recurrent projection layer can exceed state-of-the-art speech recognition performance. This architecture makes more effective use of model parameters than the others considered, converges quickly, and outperforms a deep feed forward neural network having an order of magnitude more parameters. Index Terms: Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM, recurrent neural network, RNN, speech recognition, acoustic modeling.

Highlights A 10-year dataset of time-series MODIS imagery and in situ Chl- a concentration were curated for Lake Okeechobee. LSTM significantly outperformed KNN, SVR, and RF for Chl- a prediction and subsequent HAB detection. The optimal window length was found to be 13 days with a 4-day temporal resolution for the LSTM model. KNN, SVR, and RF models were not effective at utilizing the temporal dynamics of the input features. Abstract. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) in inland waterbodies are a global concern due to their negative impact on human, animal, and ecosystem health. Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is an important water quality parameter for monitoring HABs. While statistical and machine learning (ML) models have been widely studied to predict Chl-a concentration and HABs based on single-time-point satellite data, this work assessed whether long short-term memory (LSTM) can improve both tasks by leveraging temporal features in time-series MODIS satellite images compared to three classical ML models, including k-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). A dataset of daily MODIS images and monthly in situ Chl-a concentration measurements from 2011 to 2020 was curated for Lake Okeechobee, Florida. A window size of 13 days with a temporal resolution of four days was found to produce the optimal performance for LSTM, which significantly outperformed KNN, SVR, and RF for Chl-a prediction with a root mean square error of 11.95 µg/L, a mean absolute error of 8.55 µg/L, and a R 2 value of 0.43. The superior performance of LSTM for Chl-a prediction was likely due to its ability to leverage the temporal dynamics in the features associated with HAB development. The Chl-a predictions were further used to determine HAB events, showing better accuracy and a significantly higher F1 score for LSTM over the other models. The study suggested that combining LSTM with high-temporal-resolution time-series data should be preferred over applying common ML models on time-series or single-time-point remote sensing data for Chl-a and HAB monitoring. Keywords: Cyanobacteria, LSTM, Machine Learning, Remote Sensing, Water Quality.

Timely and cost-effective crop yield prediction is vital in crop management decision-making. This study evaluates the efficacy of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-based Vegetation Indices (VIs) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) models for corn (Zea mays) yield prediction at vegetative (V6) and reproductive (R5) growth stages using a limited number of training samples at the farm scale. Four agronomic treatments, namely Austrian Winter Peas (AWP) (Pisum sativum L.) cover crop, biochar, gypsum, and fallow with sixteen replications were applied during the non-growing corn season to assess their impact on the following corn yield. Thirty different variables (i.e., four spectral bands: green, red, red edge, and near-infrared and twenty-six VIs) were derived from UAV multispectral data collected at the V6 and R5 stages to assess their utility in yield prediction. Five different ML algorithms including Linear Regression (LR), k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Deep Neural Network (DNN) were evaluated in yield prediction. One-year experimental results of different treatments indicated a negligible impact on overall corn yield. Red edge, canopy chlorophyll content index, red edge chlorophyll index, chlorophyll absorption ratio index, green normalized difference vegetation index, green spectral band, and chlorophyll vegetation index were among the most suitable variables in predicting corn yield. The SVR predicted yield for the fallow with a Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.84 and 0.69 Mg/ha at V6 and 0.83 and 1.05 Mg/ha at the R5 stage, respectively. The KNN achieved a higher prediction accuracy for AWP (R2 = 0.69 and RMSE = 1.05 Mg/ha at V6 and 0.64 and 1.13 Mg/ha at R5) and gypsum treatment (R2 = 0.61 and RMSE = 1.49 Mg/ha at V6 and 0.80 and 1.35 Mg/ha at R5). The DNN achieved a higher prediction accuracy for biochar treatment (R2 = 0.71 and RMSE = 1.08 Mg/ha at V6 and 0.74 and 1.27 Mg/ha at R5). For the combined (AWP, biochar, gypsum, and fallow) treatment, the SVR produced the most accurate yield prediction with an R2 and RMSE of 0.36 and 1.48 Mg/ha at V6 and 0.41 and 1.43 Mg/ha at the R5. Overall, the treatment-specific yield prediction was more accurate than the combined treatment. Yield was most accurately predicted for fallow than other treatments regardless of the ML model used. SVR and KNN outperformed other ML models in yield prediction. Yields were predicted with similar accuracy at both growth stages. Thus, this study demonstrated that VIs coupled with ML models can be used in multi-stage corn yield prediction at the farm scale, even with a limited number of training data.

BackgroundAccurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task. However, for different data series, the performance of these models varies. Hepatitis E, as an acute liver disease, has been a major public health problem. Which model is more appropriate for predicting the incidence of hepatitis E? In this paper, three different methods are used and the performance of the three methods is compared.MethodsAutoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), support vector machine(SVM) and long short-term memory(LSTM) recurrent neural network were adopted and compared. ARIMA was implemented by python with the help of statsmodels. SVM was accomplished by matlab with libSVM library. LSTM was designed by ourselves with Keras, a deep learning library. To tackle the problem of overfitting caused by limited training samples, we adopted dropout and regularization strategies in our LSTM model. Experimental data were obtained from the monthly incidence and cases number of hepatitis E from January 2005 to December 2017 in Shandong province, China. We selected data from July 2015 to December 2017 to validate the models, and the rest was taken as training set. Three metrics were applied to compare the performance of models, including root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and mean absolute error(MAE).ResultsBy analyzing data, we took ARIMA(1, 1, 1), ARIMA(3, 1, 2) as monthly incidence prediction model and cases number prediction model, respectively. Cross-validation and grid search were used to optimize parameters of SVM. Penalty coefficient C and kernel function parameter g were set 8, 0.125 for incidence prediction, and 22, 0.01 for cases number prediction. LSTM has 4 nodes. Dropout and L2 regularization parameters were set 0.15, 0.001, respectively. By the metrics of RMSE, we obtained 0.022, 0.0204, 0.01 for incidence prediction, using ARIMA, SVM and LSTM. And we obtained 22.25, 20.0368, 11.75 for cases number prediction, using three models. For MAPE metrics, the results were 23.5%, 21.7%, 15.08%, and 23.6%, 21.44%, 13.6%, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. For MAE metrics, the results were 0.018, 0.0167, 0.011 and 18.003, 16.5815, 9.984, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively.ConclusionsComparing ARIMA, SVM and LSTM, we found that nonlinear models(SVM, LSTM) outperform linear models(ARIMA). LSTM obtained the best performance in all three metrics of RSME, MAPE, MAE. Hence, LSTM is the most suitable for predicting hepatitis E monthly incidence and cases number.

Precise long-term rainfall prediction is important for agricultural planning, climate resilience, and reducing disaster risk, particularly for countries like Nigeria with diverse regimes of rainfall. In this research, the potential of machine learning (ML) and statistical models to predict monthly univariate rainfall in 24 Nigerian stationswas evaluated. Model training employed historical rainfall data (1960–1999), while validation was carried out for 11 years (2000–2010). SARIMA ( p; d; q ) ( P; D; Q ) s models were used in Minitab ® , R, and Python, and the most important parameters ( p; d; q; P; D; Q ) were tuned manually and by using auto.arima(). ML models such as feedforward neural networks, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems, support vector regression and random forest were utilized in MATLAB ® and R with hyperparameter-tuned models. Model performancewas evaluated in using statistics such as root mean square error ( RMSE ) and coefficient of determination ( r 2 ). SARIMA performed best in areas where rainfall variability was minimal. Nguru (12.03°N), the area with the lowest average monthly rainfall (35.71 mm), showed the highest SARIMA estimation with RMSE of as low as 7.84mm and r 2 of as high as 0.85. ML models underperformed in capturing seasonal dynamics. For instance, SVR failed to model temporal trends effectively, while random forest produced nearly constant outputs across all years. Adjustments to SARIMA parameters (e.g., setting seasonal differencing D = 0 or Q = 1) were essential in reducing unrealistic forecasts. The findings demonstrate that SARIMA, with proper tuning, is better suited for univariate rainfall forecasting in Nigeria than non-customized ML models. Forecast reliability strongly correlates with regional rainfall characteristics and model sensitivity to seasonality.

This article explores the suitability of a long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) and artificial intelligence (AI) method for low-flow time series forecasting. The long short-term memory works on the sequential framework which considers all of the predecessor data. This forecasting method used daily discharged data collected from the Basantapur gauging station located on the Mahanadi River basin, India. Different metrics [root-mean-square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS), correlation coefficient (R) and mean absolute error] were selected to assess the performance of the model. Additionally, recurrent neural network (RNN) model is also used to compare the adaptability of LSTM-RNN over RNN and naive method. The results conclude that the LSTM-RNN model (R = 0.943, ENS = 0.878, RMSE = 0.487) outperformed RNN model (R = 0.935, ENS = 0.843, RMSE = 0.516) and naive method (R = 0.866, ENS = 0.704, RMSE = 0.793). The finding of this research concludes that LSTM-RNN can be used as new reliable AI technique for low-flow forecasting.