Predicting Large Scale Fine Grain Energy Consumption

Abstract

Today a large volume of energy-related data have been continuously collected. Extracting actionable knowledge from such data is a multi-step process that opens up a variety of interesting and novel research issues across two domains: energy and computer science. The computer science aim is to provide energy scientists with cutting-edge and scalable engines to effectively support them in their daily research activities. This paper presents SPEC, a scalable and distributed predictor of fine grain energy consumption in buildings. SPEC exploits a data stream methodology analysis over a sliding time window to train a prediction model tailored to each building. The building model is then exploited to predict the upcoming energy consumption at a time instant in the near future. SPEC currently integrates the artificial neural networks technique and the random forest regression algorithm. The SPEC methodology exploits the computational advantages of distributed computing frameworks as the current implementation runs on Spark. As a case study, real data of thermal energy consumption collected in a major city have been exploited to preliminarily assess the SPEC accuracy. The initial results are promising and represent a first step towards predicting fine grain energy consumption over a sliding time window.