Abstract
BackgroundMalaria is an important mosquito-borne disease, transmitted to humans by Anopheles mosquitoes. The aim of this study was to gather all records of three main malaria vectors in Iran during the last decades, and to predict the current distribution and the environmental suitability for these species across the country.MethodsAll published documents on An. superpictus Grassi (s.l.), An. maculipennis Meigen (s.l.) and An. sacharovi Favre during 1970–2016 in Iran were obtained from different online data bases and academic libraries. A database was created in ArcMap 10.3. Ecology of these species was analyzed and the ecological niches were predicted using MaxEnt model.ResultsAnopheles superpictus (s.l.) is the most widespread malaria vector in Iran, and exists in both malaria endemic and non-endemic areas. Whereas An. maculipennis (s.l.) is reported from the northern and northwestern parts, Anopheles sacharovi is mostly found in the northwestern Iran, although there are some reports of this species in the western, southwestern and eastern parts. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for training and testing data was calculated as 0.869 and 0.828, 0.939 and 0.915, and 0.921 and 0.979, for An. superpictus (s.l.), An. maculipennis (s.l.) and An. sacharovi, respectively. Jackknife test showed the environmental variable with highest gain in the predicting power of the model when used in isolation was annual precipitation for An. superpictus (s.l.) and An. maculipennis (s.l.), and precipitation of the driest quarter for An. sacharovi.ConclusionsDespite this range, global warming may increase the potential risk for malaria transmission in some cleared-up areas, where these proven vectors are active. Mapping and prediction of spatial/temporal distribution of these vectors will be beneficial for decision makers to be aware of malaria transmission risk, especially in the western parts of the country.
Highlights
Malaria is an important mosquito-borne disease, transmitted to humans by Anopheles mosquitoes
Iran is focused on the elimination of malaria, and the tools implemented are vector control based on long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), as well as improved diagnosis and free of charge access to drugs via the health system
There is a heavy focus of vector control in the southeastern region of Iran because local transmission occurs in this area, noting that insecticide resistance to pyrethroids has been recently detected in this area [1,2,3,4]
Summary
Malaria is an important mosquito-borne disease, transmitted to humans by Anopheles mosquitoes. The aim of this study was to gather all records of three main malaria vectors in Iran during the last decades, and to predict the current distribution and the environmental suitability for these species across the country. Throughout Iran seven anopheline species are primary or secondary vectors of malaria: An. culicifacies Giles (s.l.), An. dthali Patton, An. fluviatilis James (s.l.), An. maculipennis Meigen (s.l.), An. sacharovi Favre, An. stephensi Liston and An. superpictus Grassi (s.l.) [5]. The relative importance of these vector species varies across the country, with An. stephensi, An. culicifacies (s.l.) and An. fluviatilis (s.l.) being relevant in southern Iran [6], and An. superpictus (s.l.), An. maculipennis (s.l.) and An. sacharovi being relevant across the central, northern and northwestern Iran [5]. It is noteworthy that An. sacharovi was known important vector during epidemics occurred in northwestern Iran two decades ago [7]
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