Predicting children’s academic achievement from early assessment scores: a validity generalization study

Abstract

Although there have been numerous studies investigating the predictive validity of early assessment, observed predictive validity coefficients across studies are not stable. A validity generalization study was conducted in order to answer the question of whether the relationship between early assessment of children and later achievement is generalizable or situation-specific. This study examined 716 predictive correlation coefficients from 44 studies using Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM). The findings of this study revealed that predictive validity of early assessment is not generalizable. Additional analyses indicated that predictive validity differ across assessments as a function of test type, specific construct being assessed, length of prediction, and administration procedures. The most impressive finding in this study was the variability of effect sizes across different test administration types. In particular, tests that were scored through ratings were found to be most effective. These findings suggest that instead of addressing a broad predictive validity between a test and a criterion measure, it is necessary to understand early assessment procedures as a whole system by including considerations of various variables related to testing conditions.