Abstract
The present study assesses the lead–lag teleconnection between Eurasian snow cover in October and the December-to-February mean boreal winter climate with respect to the predictability of 10 m wind speed and significant wave heights in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Lead–lag correlations exceeding a magnitude of 0.8 are found for the short time period of 1997/98–2012/13 (n = 16) for which daily satellite-sensed snow cover data is available to date. The respective cross-validated hindcast skill obtained from using linear regression as a statistical forecasting technique is similarly large in magnitude. When using a longer but degraded time series of weekly snow cover data for calculating the predictor variable (1979/80–2011/12, n = 34), hindcast skill decreases but yet remains significant over a large fraction of the study area. In addition, Monte-Carlo field significance tests reveal that the patterns of skill are globally significant. The proposed method might be used to make forecast decisions for wind and wave energy generation, seafaring, fishery and offshore drilling. To exemplify its potential suitability for the latter sector, it is additionally applied to DJF frequencies of significant wave heights exceeding 2 m, a threshold value above which mooring conditions at oil platforms are no longer optimal.
Highlights
Since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be interpreted as a regional manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Cohen and Barlow 2005), October Eurasian snow cover should as well be an informative predictor for average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic
Since the three hindcast approaches are repeated separately The present study has proposed a statistical technique for for each grid box of ERA-Interim, forecasting DJF-mean wind and wave conditions in the North
Applying cross-validation and split-sample tests for two distinct snow cover datasets, a short one based on daily- and a long one based on weekly snow cover values, the method yields significant hindcast skill for the northeastern North Atlantic, the North- and Baltic Seas and the western Mediterranean Sea
Summary
The main limit on the skill of the wave forecasts is our very limited ability to accurately predict the NAO index on seasonal time scales (Colman et al 2011, p 1067). As an alternative to the above mentioned classical predictors, October Eurasian snow cover increase was recently found to highly correlate with the DJF-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO) over the short period 1997/98–2010/11 (Cohen and Jones 2011), which is imposed by the availability of daily satellitesensed snow cover data. Since the NAO can be interpreted as a regional manifestation of the AO (Cohen and Barlow 2005), October Eurasian snow cover should as well be an informative predictor for average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic. This hypothesis will be tested here by means of empirical-statistical methods. Over the long period and the independent period, results are for the weekly RSAI since the daily one is not available for 1979/80–1996/97
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
