Abstract
ObjectivesTo predict in an Australian Aboriginal community, the 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes associated with waist circumference and age on baseline examination.MethodA sample of 803 diabetes-free adults (82.3% of the age-eligible population) from baseline data of participants collected from 1992 to 1998 were followed-up for up to 20 years till 2012. The Cox-proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effects of waist circumference and other risk factors, including age, smoking and alcohol consumption status, of males and females on prediction of type 2 diabetes, identified through subsequent hospitalisation data during the follow-up period. The Weibull regression model was used to calculate the absolute risk estimates of type 2 diabetes with waist circumference and age as predictors.ResultsOf 803 participants, 110 were recorded as having developed type 2 diabetes, in subsequent hospitalizations over a follow-up of 12633.4 person-years. Waist circumference was strongly associated with subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with P<0.0001 for both genders and remained statistically significant after adjusting for confounding factors. Hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes associated with 1 standard deviation increase in waist circumference were 1.7 (95%CI 1.3 to 2.2) for males and 2.1 (95%CI 1.7 to 2.6) for females. At 45 years of age with baseline waist circumference of 100 cm, a male had an absolute diabetic risk of 10.9%, while a female had a 14.3% risk of the disease.ConclusionsThe constructed model predicts the 10-year absolute diabetes risk in an Aboriginal Australian community. It is simple and easily understood and will help identify individuals at risk of diabetes in relation to waist circumference values. Our findings on the relationship between waist circumference and diabetes on gender will be useful for clinical consultation, public health education and establishing WC cut-off points for Aboriginal Australians.
Highlights
Diabetes is one of the fastest growing chronic conditions in Australia, with an estimated 280 people developing the disease daily [1]
Waist circumference was strongly associated with subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with P
Hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes associated with 1 standard deviation increase in waist circumference were 1.7 (95%CI 1.3 to 2.2) for males and 2.1 (95%CI 1.7 to 2.6) for females
Summary
Diabetes is one of the fastest growing chronic conditions in Australia, with an estimated 280 people developing the disease daily [1]. To quantify the impact of WC on the risk of developing diabetes, we developed a simplified tool that can be used by health professional and the general public to understand how diabetes risk varies with WC values This tool can be used to educate and alert individuals of the risk of developing diabetes according to WC and age. This tool will be helpful for the planning and conducting obesity-related health education programs for the prevention and management of T2D in Aboriginal communities in Australia
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