Predicted Lifetime Third-Party Costs of Obesity for Black and White Adolescents with Race-Specific Age-Related Weight Gain.

Abstract

There exists enormous variation in estimates of the lifetime cost of adolescent obesity by race. To justify policy measures to reduce obesity rates nationally in this demographic, the costs of obesity in late adolescence must first be discerned. Although several researchers have sought to quantify obesity's true cost, none has accounted for race-specific age-related weight gain, a vital component in producing an accurate estimate. This paper employs a Markov model of BMIcategory state changes separately for black and white males and females from age 18 to 75 applied to updated estimates of obesity's costs and effect on mortality to quantify the median lifetime cost of obesity at age 18. This study found lower lifetime costs than previously, largely because of the dramatic gain in weight among normal-weight individuals, particularly black males, that occurs in early adulthood. A substantial portion of obesity's prevalence, and therefore cost, for black males and females comes from age-related weight gain in early adulthood. This speaks to the persistent threat of obesity beyond adolescence for this demographic, and further research should focus on whether policy can modify the behaviors and environment through which and in which this sharp increase in weight occurs.