Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?

Abstract

There is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets. For the foreign exchange market a number of studies have documented that the predictability of excess returns is closely related to the predictability of expectational errors of excess returns. In this paper we investigate the link between the predictability of excess returns and expectational errors in a much broader set of financial markets, using data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market, the foreign exchange market, the bond market and money markets in various countries. The results are striking. First, in markets where there is significant excess return predictability, expectational errors of excess returns are predictable as well, with the same sign and often even with similar magnitude. This is the case for foreign exchange, stock and bond markets. Second, in the only market where excess returns are generally not predictable, the money market, expectational errors are not predictable either. These findings suggest that an explanation for the predictability of excess returns must be closely linked to an explanation for the predictability of expectational errors.