Abstract
The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts–Miller–Janjić scheme, the Kain–Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess changes in future precipitation quantities/distributions and associated uncertainties. In a warmer climate (using RCP8.5), our model simulates a small increase of convective precipitation, but lower than the anomalies and the interannual variability over the current climate, since all MAR experiments simulate a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower atmospheric layers, favoring more stable conditions. No change is also projected in extreme precipitation nor in the ratio of convective precipitation. While MAR is more sensitive to the convective scheme when forced by GCMs than when forced by ERA-Interim over the current climate, projected changes from all MAR experiments compare well.
Highlights
Due to the warming of the troposphere, its water vapor content is expected to increase over the few decades, leading to changes in clouds and precipitation [1,2,3]
This study comes within the scope of a previous work, where [19] assessed the sensitivity of Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) forced with the ERA-Interim reanalysis to different convective schemes and determined precipitation trends over 1987–2017 in Belgium
The aim of the current study was to determine whether trends in the evolution of precipitation and convective precipitation were projected in a warmer climate (RCP8.5 scenario) over Belgium
Summary
Due to the warming of the troposphere, its water vapor content is expected to increase over the few decades, leading to changes in clouds and precipitation [1,2,3]. Some regions are projected to experience an increase in precipitation, while others might be subject to precipitation declines [3,4]. An increase in annual precipitation is expected in the northern part of Europe, while the opposite is projected for the southern part and for the Mediterranean Basin [3,5,6]. The evolution of precipitation over Belgium highlights the uncertainties and complexities related to climate projections it could deeply impact ecosystems [8,9] since the seasonal variability of precipitation could change [6,10,11,12]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
