Precipitation changes during the last glacial period in the Ili Basin, northern Central Asia, as inferred from the records of loess dolomite

Abstract

Understanding the climatic evolution in Central Asia (CA) and its drivers is crucial for informed decision-making and predicting global changes due to its significant contribution as a global dust source. Unfortunately, our current understanding of the pre-Holocene precipitation patterns in CA is lacking due to the limited availability of reliable proxy indicators, and our knowledge of future precipitation projections in the region, based on paleoclimatic dynamics, is also quite limited. In this study, we analyzed variations in carbonate and dolomite contents of a loess section in the Ili Basin, northern CA, to reveal precipitation changes during the last glacial period. The results showed that changes in carbonate minerals were mainly influenced by the source material supply, driven by reduced precipitation and eluviation during glacial period. We thereby established a precipitation index by removing the influence of provenance signals from the dolomite records. The index indicated lower precipitation during mid-marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 compared to MIS2, likely due to meridional shifts and intensity changes of the westerlies caused by changes in precession and obliquity, with precession playing a major role. Through the comparison of the precipitation index with the δ18O records of the Greenland ice core on a millennial timescale, it was observed that the precipitation in northern CA exhibited a positive correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode due to migration of the westerlies. By leveraging our understanding of orbital- and millennial-scale precipitation patterns, we utilized the random forest (RF) regression model and the autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast precipitation changes for the upcoming 5000–10,000 years. The results indicated a variable pattern marked by a general upward trend, suggesting the possibility of favorable development of agricultural-based economies in the Ili River Valley. People should realize that some integrated measures are designed to improve resilience of agricultural sector in the region and enhance its capacity to adapt to challenges posed by climate change. However, more extensive research is necessary to verify these results through thorough examination and comparisons of loess sections in our research location.