Abstract
Major domestic oil fields have entered the period of high water now, however, choosing timing of profile control and water shutoff is always delay, Mostly have to wait until after the adoption of dynamic degradation. This article introduced the concept of early warning that is widely used in military and economic fields to profile control and water shut-off decision-making in high water-cut stage. Combination of actual situation of water shut-off decision-making, Presented a strong adaptive set of Warning signs of indicators, on the basis of the analysis of variation in the warning sighs of indicators, this paper proposed early warning model and processes of profile control and water shut-off. The model not only can give the current degree of a single well, but also can forecast the future degree of change in a period of time, so this modle could provide an effective basis for water shutoff and profile controle decision-makers.
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