Abstract
The Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) is characterized by increased vulnerability to river/stream flooding. However, impact-oriented, operational fluvial flood forecasting is far away from maturity in the region. The current paper presents the first attempt at introducing an operational impact-based warning system in the area, which is founded on the coupling of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model with an advanced spatially-explicit hydrological model. The system’s modeling methodology and forecasting scheme are presented, as well as prototype results, which were derived under a pre-operational mode. Future developments and challenges needed to be addressed in terms of validating the system and increasing its efficiency are also discussed. This communication highlights that standard approaches used in operational weather forecasting in the SEM for providing flood-related information and alerts can, and should, be replaced by advanced coupled hydrometeorological systems, which can be implemented without a significant cost on the operational character of the provided services. This is of great importance in establishing effective early warning services for fluvial flooding in the region.
Highlights
The geomorphological complexity of the Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) has a significant influence on the atmospheric processes in the area, especially on those related to rainfall [1]
The flood forecasting system is built upon the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and WRF-Hydro models [17,18]
The second step in the flood forecasting modeling chain involves the examination of the precipitation forecasts, provided over Cyprus and Greece, in the targeted watersheds
Summary
The geomorphological complexity of the Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) has a significant influence on the atmospheric processes in the area, especially on those related to rainfall [1]. The combined effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation, land-sea temperature contrast and orographic forcing produce frequently huge amounts of rainfall, exceeding 100–150 mm even within a few hours and/or with hourly intensities higher than 50 mm [2,3,4,5,6]. Such heavy rainfall episodes favor saturation and/or infiltration excess, and subsequently the occurrence of floods, which can be devastating in terms of damages and human losses, in the numerous small- and medium-sized catchments present in the SEM.
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