Abstract
Abstract The potential predictability of European winters on the seasonal scale is investigated with the cycle 5.3 version of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique general circulation model by analyzing the link between atmospheric low-frequency variability and oceanic temperature prescribed as boundary conditions. The word“potential” refers to the assumption that the SST is a priori known in the experiments, and to the use of a model to evaluate the real climate predictability. Eleven simulations of the 1971–92 winters have been performed with the model in SST-forced mode. The methodology used identifies atmospheric clusters by Ward clustering scheme, and atmospheric variability modes over Europe by matrix analysis of relationships between variables. Tropical Pacific surface temperature fluctuations play a prevailing role in the modulation of European variability:the model preferentially simulates negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation during El Nino episodes, and a high pressure pattern i...
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